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Second Order Dynamics Of Economic Cycles


Author Info

  • Purica, Ionut

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Caraiani, Petre

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)


The monthly data of the industrial production in Romania after the structural discontinuity occurring at the end of 1989 show an under-damped oscillatory behavior that suggests an evolution of second order systems excited by a step function. Since this behavior is well described in control systems we are doing what the literature usually calls a reversed engineering of the data in order to identify the specific parameters for the economic cycle of industrial production. The final goal is to determine the second order differential equation that may be associated to the economic process related to industrial production evolution. This paper is a first contribution that opens an alternative approach to describe the economic dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 6 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 36-47

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:1:p:36-47

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Related research

Keywords: business cycles; simulations; nonlinear methods; transition economies; mathematical methods;

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Cited by:
  1. Purica, Ionut, 2010. "Nonlinear Considerations on Economic Systems’ Behaviour," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 74-81.
  2. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Is the Romanian Business Cycle Characterized by Chaos?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 142-151, September.
  3. Purica, Ionut, 2012. "Oscillatory Dynamics of Industrial Production," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 117-128, December.
  4. Andrei Silviu DOSPINESCU, 2012. "The Behavior Of Prices As A Response To Structural Changes - The Role Of The Economic Transmission Mechanisms In Explaining The Observed Behavior," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 35(2(44)), pages 201-217, December.
  5. Cristi SPULBAR & Mihai NITOI & Cristian STANCIU, 2012. "Identifying The Industry Business Cycle Using The Markov Switching Approach In Central And Eastern Europe," Management and Marketing Journal, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 0(2), pages 293-300, November.
  6. Caraiani, Petre, 2010. "Modeling Business Cycles In The Romanian Economy Using The Markov Switching Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 130-136, March.
  7. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Models of Financial System Fragility," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 230-256, March.


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