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The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment

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Author Info

  • Creel, Jérôme

    ()
    (OFCE & ESCP Europe)

  • Hubert, Paul

    ()
    (OFCE)

  • Saraceno, Francesco

    ()
    (OFCE)

Abstract

Faced with the global financial crisis and an increasingly worrisome sovereign-debt crisis, the Eurozone countries are rethinking their fiscal governance. This paper discusses the different reforms and subsequent fiscal rules which have emerged since 2011. It assesses the impact of fiscal rules on the output gap and inflation rate of three representative countries of the Eurozone. By means of a counterfactual, the rules based upon their macroeconomic outcomes are ranked. The new debt reduction rule would certainly lead to lower debt levels, hence to larger fiscal margins for maneuver in the future but, in steep contrast with the golden rule of public finance, it would be very costly to implement as the requirement to enforce a substantial consolidation in the short run would be considerably higher than that of a golden rule and would worsen the output gap and inflation rate. The cap on the cyclically adjusted deficit also leads to unfavorable outcomes whereas the Maastricht status quo, limiting overall public deficit, would be a “second best” behind the golden rule of public finance.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University in its journal Journal of Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): 27 (2012)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 537-563

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Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0585

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Web page: http://econo.sejong.ac.kr/
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Related research

Keywords: EMU; Fiscal compact; Stability and Growth Pact; Fiscal rules; Counterfactual;

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References

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  1. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Saraceno, Francesco, 2013. "An assessment of the Stability and Growth Pact reform in a small-scale macro-framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1567-1580.
  3. Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno, 2012. "An assessment of stability and growth pact reform proposals in a small-scale macro framework," Sciences Po publications 2012-04, Sciences Po.
  4. Paul De Grauwe, 2006. "What Have we Learnt about Monetary Integration since the Maastricht Treaty?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44, pages 711-730, November.
  5. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
  6. Charles Wyplosz, 2006. "European Monetary Union: the dark sides of a major success," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 207-261, 04.
  7. Francesco Saraceno & Paola Veroni, 2005. "Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact: Reducing or Increasing the Nuisance," Sciences Po publications 2005-1, Sciences Po.
  8. Michael Kumhof & Dirk Muir & Carlos de Resende & Jan in ‘t Veld & René Lalonde & Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane & John Roberts & Stephen Snudden & Mathias Trabandt & Günter Coenen &, 2010. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," IMF Working Papers 10/73, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Rubinstein, Ariel & Safra, Zvi & Thomson, William, 1992. "On the Interpretation of the Nash Bargaining Solution and Its Extension to Non-expected Utility Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1171-86, September.
  10. Jérôme Creel & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 61-88.
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Cited by:
  1. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Saraceno, Francesco, 2013. "An assessment of the Stability and Growth Pact reform in a small-scale macro-framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1567-1580.
  2. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno,, 2013. "Assessing future sustainability of french public finances," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-11, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p5488g8pn is not listed on IDEAS

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