IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfh/bbejor/v9y2020i4p183-190.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Political Instability, Trade Openness And Economic Growth In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • MUHAMMAD ZAHID NAEEM

    (Department of Economics, University of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan.)

Abstract

The study is done to analyze the relationship between political instability and economic growth of Pakistan. Estimation has done by using time series data over the period of 1883-2016. The study analyze that unstable political economic conditions enforce negatively the economic growth, inflation and trade. In Pakistan political instability is on its peak from many decades. For the study of these fluctuations ARDL approach is used to check the relationship between selected variables. The concluded results based on empirical analysis that instable and poor political system with less efficient working skills of the administration will decrease the terms of trade of the economy, inflation will rise and unemployment will also be increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Zahid Naeem, 2020. "Political Instability, Trade Openness And Economic Growth In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 183-190, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:9:y:2020:i:4:p:183-190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bbejournal.com/index.php/BBE/article/view/118/71
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://bbejournal.com/index.php/BBE/article/view/118
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    2. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
    3. Jonathan Isham & Michael Woolcock & Lant Pritchett & Gwen Busby, 2005. "The Varieties of Resource Experience: Natural Resource Export Structures and the Political Economy of Economic Growth," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 19(2), pages 141-174.
    4. Amjad Ali & Farooq Ahmed & Fazal- Ur- Rahman, 2016. "Impact of Government Borrowing on Financial Development (A case study of Pakistan)," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(3), pages 135-143, September.
    5. Ali, Amjad & Ahmad, Khalil, 2014. "The Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on Life Expectancy for Sultanate of Oman: An Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 82500, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    6. Roubini, Nouriel & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1989. "Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-933, May.
    7. Svensson, Jakob, 1998. "Investment, property rights and political instability: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1317-1341, July.
    8. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    9. Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2018. "Macroeconomic Environment and Taxes Revenues in Pakistan: An Application of ARDL Approach," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(1), pages 30-39, March.
    10. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G., 2008. "Growth, volatility and political instability: Non-linear time-series evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 135-137, July.
    11. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2012. "Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-304.
    12. Jack A. Goldstone & Robert H. Bates & David L. Epstein & Ted Robert Gurr & Michael B. Lustik & Monty G. Marshall & Jay Ulfelder & Mark Woodward, 2010. "A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 190-208, January.
    13. Amjad Ali & Ismail Senturk, 2019. "Justifying the Impact of Economic Deprivation, Maternal Status and Health infrastructure on Under-Five Child Mortality in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 140-154, September.
    14. Dupas, Pascaline & Robinson, Jonathan, 2012. "The (hidden) costs of political instability: Evidence from Kenya's 2007 election crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 314-329.
    15. Elizabeth Asiedu, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: The Role of Natural Resources, Market Size, Government Policy, Institutions and Political Instability," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 63-77, January.
    16. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82496, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    17. Scott Gates & Håvard Hegre & Mark P. Jones & Håvard Strand, 2006. "Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Polity Duration, 1800–2000," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(4), pages 893-908, October.
    18. Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2016. "The Impact of Income Inequality, Environmental Degradation and Globalization on Life Expectancy in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(4), pages 182-193, April.
    19. Tim Büthe & Helen V. Milner, 2008. "The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 741-762, October.
    20. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    21. Mohsin Habib & Leon Zurawicki, 2002. "Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 33(2), pages 291-307, June.
    22. Asif Sajid & Amjad Ali, 2018. "Inclusive Growth and Macroeconomic Situations in South Asia: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(3), pages 97-109, September.
    23. Brautigam, Deborah A & Knack, Stephen, 2004. "Foreign Aid, Institutions, and Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 255-285, January.
    24. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    25. Allard, Gayle & Martinez, Candace A. & Williams, Christopher, 2012. "Political instability, pro-business market reforms and their impacts on national systems of innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 638-651.
    26. Iram Ashraf & Amjad Ali, 2018. "Socio-Economic Well-Being and Women Status in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(2), pages 46-58, June.
    27. Ali, Amjad & Zulfiqar, Kalsoom, 2018. "An Assessment of Association between Natural Resources Agglomeration and Unemployment in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 87968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Amjad Ali & Nooreen Mujahid & Yahya Rashid & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2015. "Human Capital Outflow and Economic Misery: Fresh Evidence for Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(3), pages 747-764, December.
    29. Amjad Ali & Chan Bibi, 2020. "Public Policies, Socio-Economic Environment And Crimes In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, March.
    30. Mohamad Kassem & Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2019. "Unemployment Rate, Population Density and Crime Rate in Punjab (Pakistan): An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(2), pages 92-104, June.
    31. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    32. Anthony Annett, 2001. "Social Fractionalization, Political Instability, and the Size of Government," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-7.
    33. Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2009. "On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 15-29, March.
    34. Nauro F. Campos & Martin Gassebner, 2013. "International Terrorism, Domestic Political Instability, and the Escalation Effect," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 27-47, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aftab Ahmad, 2020. "Poverty Terrorism Nexus: A Case Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 162-172, December.
    2. Arif Khan & Gul Zeb Chaudhary, 2020. "Determinants Of Inflation In Case Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 151-161, December.
    3. SHAHID MANZOOR SHAH & Nooria Shams-U-Din, 2020. "Determinants Of Death Rates In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 141-150, September.
    4. Ismail Senturk & Amna Shafiq Minhas, 2020. "Researching Shadow Education: Methodological Challenges And Directions," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 173-182, December.
    5. Maria Safdar & Muhammad Zahid Naeem, 2020. "Outflow Of Human Capital And Health Sector In Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 113-122, September.
    6. Maria Safdar, 2020. "The Impact Of Terrorism On Economic Growth In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 191-201, December.
    7. Muhammad Asim & Hafiza Naila Saddique, 2020. "Migration And Unemployment In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 123-134, September.
    8. Fiaz Ahmad Sulehri & Javaria Khan, 2020. "The Effect Of Trade Openness On Inflation In Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 135-140, September.
    9. Yannick Roussel & Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2021. "Measuring The Money Demand In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(1), pages 27-41, March.
    10. Khalil Ahmad & Ismail Senturk, 2021. "Health Structure, Nutrition And Economic Growth In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(1), pages 42-50, March.
    11. Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad & Ali, Amjad, 2020. "Impact of Political Uncertainty on Pakistan Stock Exchange (1990-1999): An Event Study Approach," MPRA Paper 104623, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Shakil Ahmad & Muhammad Waqas Khan, 2021. "Investigating The Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi) And Foreign Remittances On Economic Growth In Pakistan (1990-2018): A Time Series Analysis Using Ardl Model Approach," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, March.
    13. Alim, Wajid & Ali, Amjad & Farid, Maryiam, 2021. "The Impact of Islamic Portfolio on Risk and Return," MPRA Paper 111211, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Marc Audi & Fiaz Ahmad Sulehri & Amjad Ali & Razan Al-Masri, 2022. "An Event Based Analysis of Stock Return and Political Uncertainty in Pakistan: Revisited," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 39-56, September.
    15. Ahmad Latif & Rimsha Javed, 2021. "Does Economic Growth, Population Growth And Energy Use Impact Carbondioxide Emissions In Pakistan? An Ardl Approach," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(2), pages 85-91, June.
    16. Syed Fazal Rehman, 2020. "Exploring The Long Run Effects And Relationship Of Military Expenditures And Economic Growth In The Scenario Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 106-112, September.
    17. Shahid Manzoor Shah, 2020. "Corporate Governance And Firm Level Characteristics Of Sustainability: Evidence From Non-Financial Firms Operating In The Usa," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(2), pages 92-100, June.
    18. Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad & Ahmed, Usman & Alim, Wajid, 2021. "Black Economy, Financial Inclusion, Financial Liberalization Nexus: A Panel Analysis of Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 111129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Syed Fazal Rehman & Hadya Fatima Cheema, 2021. "Exploring The Relationship Between Energy Usage And Economic Growth: In The Perspective Of Brics Nations," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(1), pages 17-26, March.
    20. Hassan Ajmal, 2020. "Exploring The Linkages Between Investment And Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(2), pages 85-91, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    political instability; trade; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:9:y:2020:i:4:p:183-190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Muhammad Irfan Chani (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rffhlpk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.