IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfh/bbejor/v9y2020i1p1-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public Policies, Socio-Economic Environment And Crimes In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • AMJAD ALI

    (Assistant Professor, Lahore School of Accountancy and Finance, City Campus, University of Lahore. chanamjadali@yahoo.com)

  • CHAN BIBI

    (Advocate High Court Lahore, International Islamic University, Islamabad (LLM. Scholar in International Law). chanali.lawyer@yahoo.com)

Abstract

This article attempts to analyze the impact of public policies about taxes, defense expenditures, loans and grants on crimes in Pakistan over the period from 1980 to 2019. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach has utilized to check cointegration among the variables of the model and Vector Error-Correction model is applied for estimating short run dynamics of the model. The outcomes of the analysis show that defense expenditures, loans and grants more taxes and rising economic misery have a positive and significant impact on crime rates in the case of Pakistan. For the reduction of crime rate government of Pakistan must reduce taxes, defense expenditures, loans and grants and economic misery in the country. For reducing unemployment, government of Pakistan must establish such economic environment which boost new jobs and stable inflation. Moreover, skill development programs must be initiated, so that youth can get self-employment rather than searching government and private jobs. Inflation can be controlled by putting checks on rising production costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Amjad Ali & Chan Bibi, 2020. "Public Policies, Socio-Economic Environment And Crimes In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:9:y:2020:i:1:p:1-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bbejournal.com/index.php/BBE/article/view/130/84
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://bbejournal.com/index.php/BBE/article/view/130
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 163-190, Winter.
    2. Raphael, Steven & Winter-Ember, Rudolf, 2001. "Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 259-283, April.
    3. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    4. Amjad Ali & Farooq Ahmed & Fazal- Ur- Rahman, 2016. "Impact of Government Borrowing on Financial Development (A case study of Pakistan)," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(3), pages 135-143, September.
    5. Ali, Amjad & Ahmad, Khalil, 2014. "The Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on Life Expectancy for Sultanate of Oman: An Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 82500, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    6. Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J Smith, 1999. "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 46, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    9. Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2018. "Macroeconomic Environment and Taxes Revenues in Pakistan: An Application of ARDL Approach," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(1), pages 30-39, March.
    10. Christian Traxler & Carsten Burhop, 2010. "Poverty and crime in 19th century Germany: A reassessment," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2010_35, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    12. Mehlum, Halvor & Miguel, Edward & Torvik, Ragnar, 2006. "Poverty and crime in 19th century Germany," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 370-388, May.
    13. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Altindag, Duha T., 2012. "Crime and unemployment: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-157.
    15. Kenneth Burdett & Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2004. "An On-The-Job Search Model Of Crime, Inequality, And Unemployment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(3), pages 681-706, August.
    16. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82496, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    17. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    18. Gumus, Erdal, 2003. "Crime in Urban Areas: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 42106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Demombynes, Gabriel & Ozler, Berk, 2005. "Crime and local inequality in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 265-292, April.
    20. Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2016. "The Impact of Income Inequality, Environmental Degradation and Globalization on Life Expectancy in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(4), pages 182-193, April.
    21. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Lederman, Daniel & Loayza, Norman, 2002. "Inequality and Violent Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 1-40, April.
    22. Dongxu Wu & Zhongmin Wu, 2012. "Crime, inequality and unemployment in England and Wales," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(29), pages 3765-3775, October.
    23. James Laurenceson & Joseph C.H. Chai, 2003. "Financial Reform and Economic Development in China," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2714.
    24. Mah, Jai S., 2000. "An empirical examination of the disaggregated import demand of Korea--the case of information technology products," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 237-244.
    25. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    26. Morgan Kelly, 2000. "Inequality And Crime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 530-539, November.
    27. Ali, Amjad & Zulfiqar, Kalsoom, 2018. "An Assessment of Association between Natural Resources Agglomeration and Unemployment in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 87968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Hafiz Hanzla Jalil & Muhammad Mazhar Iqbal, 2010. "Urbanisation and Crime: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 741-755.
    29. Amjad Ali & Chan Bibi, 2020. "Public Policies, Socio-Economic Environment And Crimes In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, March.
    30. Muhammad Awais Anwa & Samia Nasreen & Anam Shahzadi, 2015. "Social and Demographic Determinants of Crime in Pakistan: A Panel Data Analysis of Province Punjab," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(9), pages 440-447, September.
    31. Charalambos Pattichis, 1999. "Price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demand: results from UECMs and an application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1061-1071.
    32. Mohamad Kassem & Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2019. "Unemployment Rate, Population Density and Crime Rate in Punjab (Pakistan): An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(2), pages 92-104, June.
    33. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    34. Ayesha Haider & Amjad Ali, 2015. "Socio-Economic Determinants of Crimes: A Cross-Sectional Study of Punjab Districts," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(11), pages 550-560, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yasir Aleem & Sanan Waheed Khan & Muhammad Zahid Rafique & Saima Jamroze, 2021. "Public Attitudes Towards Fear Of Crime And Victimization In The Age Of Mass Media," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(3), pages 208-215, September.
    2. Muhammad Zahid Naeem, 2020. "Political Instability, Trade Openness And Economic Growth In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 183-190, December.
    3. Yasir Aleem & Sanan Waheed Khan & Saima Jamroze, 2021. "Media'S Portrayal Of Crime And Public Perception Toward The Criminal Justice System," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(4), pages 167-175, December.
    4. Arif Khan & Gul Zeb Chaudhary, 2020. "Determinants Of Inflation In Case Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 151-161, December.
    5. Maria Safdar & Muhammad Zahid Naeem, 2020. "Outflow Of Human Capital And Health Sector In Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 113-122, September.
    6. Aftab Ahmad, 2020. "Poverty Terrorism Nexus: A Case Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 162-172, December.
    7. Maria Safdar, 2020. "The Impact Of Terrorism On Economic Growth In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 191-201, December.
    8. Muhammad Asim & Hafiza Naila Saddique, 2020. "Migration And Unemployment In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 123-134, September.
    9. Syed Fazal Rehman, 2020. "Exploring The Long Run Effects And Relationship Of Military Expenditures And Economic Growth In The Scenario Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 106-112, September.
    10. Shahid Manzoor Shah, 2020. "Corporate Governance And Firm Level Characteristics Of Sustainability: Evidence From Non-Financial Firms Operating In The Usa," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(2), pages 92-100, June.
    11. Muhammad Bilal Ahmad & Ghulam Mustafa & Dr. Muhammad Asif Shahzad, 2021. "A Comparative Study Of Public And Private Students’ Attitude Towards Learning English At Secondary School Level," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(4), pages 101-106, December.
    12. Amjad Ali & Chan Bibi, 2020. "Public Policies, Socio-Economic Environment And Crimes In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, March.
    13. SHAHID MANZOOR SHAH & Nooria Shams-U-Din, 2020. "Determinants Of Death Rates In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 141-150, September.
    14. Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad & Ali, Amjad, 2020. "Impact of Political Uncertainty on Pakistan Stock Exchange (1990-1999): An Event Study Approach," MPRA Paper 104623, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sunana Alam & Shehla A. Yasin, 2022. "Harassment Faced by Females at Bus Stops in Lahore," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(2), pages 124-133, August.
    16. Ismail Senturk & Amna Shafiq Minhas, 2020. "Researching Shadow Education: Methodological Challenges And Directions," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 173-182, December.
    17. Qamar, Alina & Safdar, Maria, 2021. "The Role of Human Capital, Corruption and Quality of Life in Determining the Crime Rate: Empirics from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 107633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Fiaz Ahmad Sulehri & Javaria Khan, 2020. "The Effect Of Trade Openness On Inflation In Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 135-140, September.
    19. Hassan Ajmal, 2020. "Exploring The Linkages Between Investment And Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(2), pages 85-91, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amjad Ali & Ismail Senturk, 2019. "Justifying the Impact of Economic Deprivation, Maternal Status and Health infrastructure on Under-Five Child Mortality in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 140-154, September.
    2. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    3. Mohamad Kassem & Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2019. "Unemployment Rate, Population Density and Crime Rate in Punjab (Pakistan): An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(2), pages 92-104, June.
    4. Tariq Hussain & Ahmad Raza Ul Mustafa & Makhdum M.I. & Kaleem Ullah, 2022. "Defense Expenditures, Fiscal Deficit And Debt Servicing Nexus: A Case Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 74-83, June.
    5. Shakil Ahmad & Muhammad Waqas Khan, 2021. "Investigating The Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi) And Foreign Remittances On Economic Growth In Pakistan (1990-2018): A Time Series Analysis Using Ardl Model Approach," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, March.
    6. Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Determining Pakistan's Financial Dependency: The Role of Financial Globalization and Corruption," MPRA Paper 116097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ahmad Latif & Rimsha Javed, 2021. "Does Economic Growth, Population Growth And Energy Use Impact Carbondioxide Emissions In Pakistan? An Ardl Approach," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(2), pages 85-91, June.
    8. Yannick Roussel & Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2021. "Measuring The Money Demand In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(1), pages 27-41, March.
    9. Ali, Amjad & Bibi, Chan, 2016. "Determinants of Social Progress and its Scenarios under the role of Macroeconomic Instability: Empirics from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Aftab Ahmad, 2020. "Poverty Terrorism Nexus: A Case Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 162-172, December.
    11. Arif Khan & Gul Zeb Chaudhary, 2020. "Determinants Of Inflation In Case Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 151-161, December.
    12. Maria Safdar & Muhammad Zahid Naeem, 2020. "Outflow Of Human Capital And Health Sector In Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 113-122, September.
    13. Muhammad Zahid Naeem, 2020. "Political Instability, Trade Openness And Economic Growth In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 183-190, December.
    14. Alim, Wajid & Ali, Amjad, 2021. "The Impact of Islamic Portfolio on Risk and Return," MPRA Paper 111048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad & Ahmed, Usman & Alim, Wajid, 2021. "Black Economy, Financial Inclusion, Financial Liberalization Nexus: A Panel Analysis of Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 111129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ali, Amjad, 2016. "Issue of Income Inequality under the perceptive of Macroeconomic Instability: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 74963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Hassan Ajmal, 2020. "Exploring The Linkages Between Investment And Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(2), pages 85-91, June.
    18. SHAHID MANZOOR SHAH & Nooria Shams-U-Din, 2020. "Determinants Of Death Rates In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 141-150, September.
    19. Ismail Senturk & Amna Shafiq Minhas, 2020. "Researching Shadow Education: Methodological Challenges And Directions," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 173-182, December.
    20. Khalil Ahmad & Ismail Senturk, 2021. "Health Structure, Nutrition And Economic Growth In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(1), pages 42-50, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; unemployment; crime rate; public policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:9:y:2020:i:1:p:1-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Muhammad Irfan Chani (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rffhlpk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.