Israel 1983: A bout of unpleasant monetarist arithmetic?
AbstractThis paper claims that anticipations of a promised massive future government bailout of owners of fallen bank shares suddenly caused a big jump in inflation in Israel in October 1983. That month, the government promised that four or five years later it would compensate innocent people for the fall in the value of their bank shares. We reason that the public believed that promise, that it understood that the public debt must jump, and further that the public anticipated that the government would finance that debt via a future monetary expansion. That sparked an immediate jump in inflation via the unpleasant monetarist arithmetic of Sargent and Wallace (1981). (Copyright: Elsevier)
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.
Volume (Year): 14 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
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Other versions of this item:
- Sargent, Thomas J & Zeira, Joseph, 2008. "Israel 1983: A Bout of Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 6792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Thomas Sargent & Joseph Zeira, 2011. "Code and data files for "Israel 1983: A Bout of Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic"," Computer Codes 08-166, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
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