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Un modelo de proyección BVAR para la inflación peruana

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Author Info

  • Llosa, Gonzalo
  • Tuesta, Vicente
  • Vega, Marco

Abstract

Se construye un marco simple de proyección no estructural BVAR para proyectar datos macroeconómicos claves de la economía peruana, en particular la inflación y el producto. A manera de contribución, con relación a aplicaciones estándar, se propone una especificación de priors a la Litterman, en la cual se considera que la estructura que conduce la dinámica de la economía se ha desplazado hacia un régimen de metas de inflación. Se comparan varias especificaciones BVAR contra un modelo de proyección de paseo aleatorio y se encuentra que las primeras tienen una buena performance relativa en términos de proyecciones de inflación para todos los horizontes. Sin embargo, las proyecciones de crecimiento del PBI no llegan a superar claramente al modelo de paseo aleatorio.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 13 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-13-02

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References

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  1. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
  2. Winkelried, Diego, 2003. "Hacia una meta explícita de inflación: Anticipando la inflación en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 9, pages 11-40.
  3. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Quispe Misaico, Zenon, 2000. "Monetary policy in a dollarised economy: The case of Peru," MPRA Paper 35530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
  6. Svensson, Lars E O, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgement: Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 5072, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Luque, Javier & Vega, Marco, 2003. "Usando un modelo semi-estructural de pequeña escala para hacer proyecciones: Algunas consideraciones," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 10.
  8. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting "M" back in monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 761, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Armas, Adrián & Grippa, Francisco & Quispe, Zenón & Valdivia, Luis, 2001. "De metas monetarias a metas de inflación en una economía con dolarización parcial: El caso peruano," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 7.
  10. Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994. "Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 12, Stockholm School of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Carlos Garcia & Pablo Gonzalez & Antonio Moncado, 2010. "Proyecciones Macroeconómicas en Chile: Una Aproximación Bayesiana," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv262, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.

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