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La politique monétaire française à travers la règle de Taylor

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  • Alexis Penot

Abstract

[fre] La règle de Taylor est l’illustration la plus populaire de l’efficacité des règles activistes de politique monétaire. De nombreux travaux ont montré, sans s’interroger sur l’optimalité de la règle initiale, que les grands pays industriels ont suivi une politique proche de la règle de Taylor. La France est une exception notable alors que l’on attribue souvent une partie de la responsabilité de la faible croissance des années 90 à une politique monétaire trop restrictive. Le but de cet article est donc de déterminer, par des simulations, une règle de Taylor optimale pour la France dans le cadre d’un petit modèle économétrique et de regarder en quoi une telle règle aurait modifié le comportement des prix et de la croissance si elle avait été suivie. [eng] French monetary policy and the Taylor rule . The Taylor rule is the most popular illustration of the efficiency of activist monetary policy rules. Many previous works have shown, without interrogating themselves on the optimality of the initial rule, that the main industrial countries followed a policy close to the Taylor rule. France is a notable exception whereas one often assigns a part of the responsibility of the weak growth of the nineties to a too restrictive monetary policy. The goal of this paper is therefore to determine, by simulations, an optimal Taylor rule for France in the setting of a small econometric model and to look how such a rule would have modified the behavior of prices and growth if it had been followed.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue d'économie financière.

Volume (Year): 49 (1998)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 135-154

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Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_1998_num_49_5_3729

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.1998.3729
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecofi

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  1. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996. "Practical issues in monetary policy targeting," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 2-15.
  2. De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Inflation Targeting to Achieve Inflation Convergence in the Transition Towards EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1457, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
  4. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
  5. Ray C. Fair & E. Philip Howrey, 1995. "Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1091, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. John H. Green, 1996. "Inflation Targeting: Theory and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 779-795, December.
  7. J. H. Green, 1996. "Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 96/65, International Monetary Fund.
  8. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "Specification of policy rules and performance measures in multicountry simulation studies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 259-275, June.
  9. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  11. Bennett T. McCallum, 1987. "The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: a concrete example," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 10-18.
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