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Quelques effets économiques du prêt à taux zéro

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  • Laurent Gobillon
  • David Le Blanc

Abstract

[ger] Wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen des zinslosen Darlehens . . Um die Auswirkungen des zinslosen Darlehens auf die Nachfrage nach Wohnungseigentum zu messen, wird ein Modell mit Daten aus den Insee-Erhebungen Wohnen . 1996 und Vermögen 1997 geschätzt (diese Schätzung bezieht sich auf die Effekte des zinslosen Darlehens vor der jüngsten Reform von Januar 2005, durch die dieses Darlehen auf den Erwerb von Altwohnungen ausgeweitet wurde). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das zinslose Darlehen den Erwerb von Wohnungseigentum in der Tat fördert, insbesondere im Falle der Haushalte mit den niedrigsten Einkünften. Ohne eine solche Hilfe wären die meisten dieser Haushalte in ihrer bisherigen Wohnung geblieben und hätten abgewartet, bis sie das notwendige Eigenkapital zusammengespart haben. Dagegen spielen beim zinslosen Darlehen erhebliche Mitnahmeeffekte eine Rolle. 85 % der Begünstigten hätten sich innerhalb eines bestimmten Zeitraums auch ohne zinsloses Darlehen zum Umzug zwecks Erwerbs von Wohnungseigentum entschieden. Mithin trägt das zinslose Darlehen nicht zwangsweise zur allgemeinen Verbesserung der Qualität der Neubauten auf dem Markt bei. Ohne eine durch die Einführung des zinslosen Darlehens bedingte Erhöhung der Immobilienpreise wäre der Multiplikatoreffekt des Systems auf die Investition in Wohnungseigentum recht gering, etwa 1,3. [spa] Algunos efectos económicos del préstamo de tipo cero . . Para medir del impacto del préstamo de tipo cero (PTZ) sobre la demanda de alojamiento, se estima aquí un modelo basado en datos procedentes de las encuestas . Logement1996 y Patrimoine 1997 llevadas a cabo por el Insee (esta estimación descansa en los efectos del PTZ antes de la nueva modificación de enero 2005, la cual extiende ese préstamo a la compra de viviendas antiguas). Los resultados muestran que el préstamo de tipo cero sí tiene un efecto desencadenante sobre la accesión a la propiedad y ese efecto afecta en especial a aquellos hogares más humildes de entre los que acceden a una vivienda. De no existir esa ayuda, la mayor parte de esos hogares se quedaría en la vivienda que ocupa, y esperaría la acumulación de un ahorro suficiente para llegar a constituir una aportación personal. Por otra parte, el PTZ sufre fuertes efectos de mañería. A pesar del todo, el 85 % de los beneficiarios en un periodo dado habría optado por mudarse para ser pro-

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Gobillon & David Le Blanc, 2005. "Quelques effets économiques du prêt à taux zéro," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 381(1), pages 63-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2005_num_381_1_7209
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2005.7209
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2005.7209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet, 2021. "Pourquoi le recours à l’éco-prêt à taux zéro est-il si faible ?," Post-Print hal-03278386, HAL.
    2. Giraudet, Louis-Gaëtan & Bourgeois, Cyril & Quirion, Philippe, 2021. "Policies for low-carbon and affordable home heating: A French outlook," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Pierre Madec, 2015. "Quelle est l'efficacité des aides publiques au logement ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/56mtglm77d8, Sciences Po.
    4. Carole Bonnet & Bertrand Garbinti & Sébastien Grobon, 2018. "Rising inequalities in access to home ownership among young households in France, 1973-2013," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 500-501-5, pages 117-138.
    5. Pierre Madec, 2015. "Quelle est l'efficacité des aides publiques au logement ?," Post-Print hal-03571234, HAL.
    6. Pierre Madec, 2015. "Quelle est l'efficacité des aides publiques au logement ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03571234, HAL.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/56mtglm77d8qdorqfd0ckr23no is not listed on IDEAS

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