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Décisions d'investissement et de démantèlement sous incertitude : une application au secteur électrique

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  • Corinne Chaton

Abstract

[eng] Investment and Decommissioning Decisions Under Uncertainty : an Application to the Electricity Sector . by Corinne Chaton . The purpose of this study is to use real options theory to answer the following question : Is it necessary, in France, to invest in new nuclear power units or should some of the existing units be decommissioned ? The theoretical model developed establishes two price thresholds which determine investment or decommissioning rules for a regulated risk-neutral firm which does not know the future price of its input. It also provides an empirical reading of past choices in construction of French nuclear power plants. The main finding is that, on a certain number of theoretical and empirical assumptions, it is optimal at present is to leave French nuclear power capacity unchanged. Other more general findings follow from the theoretical model. Thus an increase in uncertainty facilitates investment, defers decommissioning and extends the range of input prices for which there is no change in capacity. Key-words : investment, partial irreversibility, uncertainty, inelasticity, options. JEL Classification : D8 . . [fre] L’objectif de cette étude est d’utiliser la théorie des options réelles pour tenter de répondre à la question suivante : faut-il, en France, investir dans de nouvelles unités électronucléaires ou faut-il démanteler certaines unités existantes ? Le modèle théorique élaboré détermine deux seuils de prix qui définissent les règles d’investissement et de démantèlement dans le cas d’une firme réglementée, neutre au risque et qui ne connaît pas le prix futur de son intrant. Il fournit aussi une lecture a posteriori des choix passés de construction des centrales nucléaires françaises. La principale conclusion est que sous un certain nombre d’hypothèses théoriques et empiriques, il est optimal actuellement de ne pas modifier la capacité électronucléaire française. D’autres conclusions, plus générales, découlent du modèle théorique. Ainsi, un accroissement de l’incertitude facilite l’investissement, retarde le démantèlement et élargit l’intervalle des prix de l’intrant pour lesquels il n’y a pas de modification des capacités de production. Mots-clés : investissement, irréversibilité partielle, incertitude, inélasticité, options. Classification JEL : D8.

Suggested Citation

  • Corinne Chaton, 2001. "Décisions d'investissement et de démantèlement sous incertitude : une application au secteur électrique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 149(3), pages 15-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_149_3_6289
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2001.6289
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2001.6289
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    1. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ngongang, Elie, 2011. "Impact of Exchange Rate Policy on the Trade of Industrial Products in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1975 to 2007," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(1-2), pages 1-27, March.
    3. Ngongang, Elie, 2012. "Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Financial Variables on Investment Behavior in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) Countries," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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