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Estimation d'un modèle de sortie de chômage à destinations multiples

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  • Stefan Lollivier
  • Chantal Cases

Abstract

[ger] Schätzung eines Modells des Austritts aus der Arbeitslosigkeit mit verschiedenen Fällen der Beendigung, . von Chantai Cases, Stefan Lollivier.. . In die Dauermodelle, die für die Analyse des Endes der Arbeitslosigkeit zur Anwendung kommen, werden häufig die Unterschiede zwischen den Individuen mit einbezogen. Nicht so oft beriicksichtigt wird bei den Schätzungen dagegen die Heterogenität der einzelnen Fälle der Beendigung. Auf dem Arbeitsmarkt vollzieht sich jedoch immer mehr eine Segmentierung zwischen regelmäßigen und unsicheren Beschäftigungen. In dieser Untersuchung soil deshalb ein Dauermodell mit drei möglichen Fällen des Austritts aus der Arbeitslosigkeit geschätzt werden, wobei der Dualismus des Arbeitsmarktes und das éventuelle Ausscheiden aus dem Erwerbsleben berücksichtigt werden. Sowohl die Dauer als auch der Effekt der exogenen Variablen weisen je nach den drei Fällen erhebliche Unterschiede auf. [fre] Estimation d'un modèle de sortie de chômage à destinations multiples, . par Chantai Cases, Stefan Lollivier.. . Les différences entre individus sont fréquemment introduites dans les modèles de durée appliquées aux sorties du chômage. L'hétérogénéité des états de sortie est moins souvent prise en compte dans les estimations. Or le marché du travail tend de plus en plus à se segmenter entre emplois réguliers et emplois précaires. L'objet de cette étude est précisément de proposer l'estimation d'un modèle de durée avec trois états de sortie possibles à l'issue du chômage, prenant en compte le dualisme du marché du travail et la possibilité de quitter l'activité. À la fois les durées et l'effet des variables exogènes diffèrent notablement selon les trois états. [eng] Estimation of a Model of Exits from Unemployment with Diverse Applications, . by Chantai Cases and Stefan Lollivier.. . The differences between individuals are frequently introduced into duration models applied to exits from unemployment. The heterogeneousness of states of exit is less often taken into account in estimates. However, the labour market is showing an increasing tendency to divide itself up between steady jobs and insecure jobs. The purpose of this study is to propose the estimation of a duration model with three possible states of exit at the end of unemployment, taking into account the dualism on the labour market and the possibility of leaving the world of work altogether. Both the lengths and the effect of the exogenous variables differ greatly according to the three states. [spa] Estimación de un modelo de salida de paro con destinos múltiples, . por Chantai Cases, Stefan Lollivier.. . Las diferencias entre individuos son frecuentemente introducidas en los modelos de duración aplicados a las salidas del paro. La heterogeneidad de los estados de salida se toma menos a menudo en cuenta en las estimaciones. Ahora bien, el mercado del trabajo tiende cada vez más a segmentarse entre empleos regulares y empleos precarios. El objeto de este estudio es precisamente proponer la estimación de un modelo de duracion con tres estados de salida posibles después del paro, tomando en cuenta el duaHsmo del mercado del trabajo y la posibilidad de dejar la actividad. A la vez las duraciones y el efecto de las variables exógenas difieren notablemente según los tres estados.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 113 (1994)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 177-187

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1994_num_113_2_5675

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1994.5675
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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References

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  1. Bonnal, Liliane & Fougere, Denis & Serandon, Anne, 1997. "Evaluating the Impact of French Employment Policies on Individual Labour Market Histories," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 683-713, October.
  2. Denis Fougère & Liliane Bonnal, 1990. "Les déterminants individuels de la durée du chômage," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 96(5), pages 45-82.
  3. Narendranathan, Wiji & Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Modelling the process of job search," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 29-49, April.
  4. Lippman, Steven A & McCall, John J, 1976. "The Economics of Job Search: A Survey," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 347-68, September.
  5. Berg, G.J. van den, 1987. "Nonstationarity in job search theory," Research Memorandum 242, Tilburg University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  6. Lippman, Steven A & McCall, John J, 1976. "The Economics of Job Search: A Survey: Part I," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(2), pages 155-89, June.
  7. Lancaster, Tony & Chesher, Andrew, 1983. "An Econometric Analysis of Reservation Wages," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1661-76, November.
  8. repec:fth:inseep:9344 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Atkinson, Anthony B & Micklewright, John, 1991. "Unemployment Compensation and Labor Market Transitions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1679-1727, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Florens, J.-P. & Fougère, D. & Kamionka, T. & Mouchart, M., . "La modélisation économétrique des transitions individuelles sur le marché du travail," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1138, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Chantal Cases, 1994. "Durées de chômage et comportements d'offre de travail : une revue de la littérature," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 113(2), pages 155-170.
  3. Lauer, Charlotte, 2003. "Education and Unemployment: A French-German Comparison," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-34, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  4. Emmanuel Duguet & Florent Frémigacci & Yannick L’Horty, 2008. "Indemnisation du chômage et retour à l’emploi : un examen économétrique," Documents de recherche 08-07, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.

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