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A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism

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  • Irineu De Carvalho Filho
  • Marcos Chamon

Abstract

Latin American countries have experienced cycles of expansionary policies, currency appreciation, and crises. The popularity of appreciations, through their effect on consumers' purchasing power, has been an accepted assumption in the literature despite a dearth of studies on the distributional impact of exchange rate movements. This study computes the welfare effects of exchange rate movements at different points of the income distribution for Brazil and Mexico. It shows that the distributional effects of appreciations split both countries on a regional basis, instead of across income levels. In Brazil, appreciations are found to benefit less or harm more the rural areas; in Mexico, they benefit less or harm more the Northern border states. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 481–510. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.15; published online 1 July 2008

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 481-510

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:3:p:481-510

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References

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  1. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Hahn, Elke & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging markets," Working Paper Series 0739, European Central Bank.
  2. Ari Aisen, 2004. "Money-Based Versus Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 04/94, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  4. Scheve, Kenneth F. & Slaughter, Matthew J., 2001. "What determines individual trade-policy preferences?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 267-292, August.
  5. Irineu E. Carvalho Filho & Marcos Chamon, 2006. "The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 06/275, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil: 1964-1997," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 341, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  7. Porto, Guido G., 2006. "Using survey data to assess the distributional effects of trade policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 140-160, September.
  8. Eugene Beaulieu, 2002. "Factor or Industry Cleavages in Trade Policy? An Empirical Analysis of the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 99-131, 07.
  9. Agnes Belaisch, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 03/141, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Edward J. Balistreri, 1997. "The Performance of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Model in Predicting Endogenous Policy Forces at the Individual Level," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-17, February.
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Cited by:
  1. de Carvalho Filho, Irineu & Chamon, Marcos, 2011. "The myth of post-reform income stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico," MPRA Paper 28532, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Naotaka Sugawara, 2012. "Fiscal adjustment in Greece under the financial rescue programme: the distributional effects on Greek households," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1071-1074, July.

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