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The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation in Brazil

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  • Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
  • Mr. Marcos d Chamon

Abstract

This paper uses Engel curves to estimate real income growth in Brazil. The estimated per capita household real income growth in metropolitan areas during 1987-2002 is about 4½ percent per year, well above the "headline" growth of 1½ percent obtained by deflating nominal incomes by the CPI. This suggests a substantial CPI bias during that period, likely owing to one-off effects of trade liberalization and inflation stabilization. The estimated unmeasured gains are higher for poorer households, implying a marked reduction in "real" inequality. This finding challenges the conventional wisdom that post-reform real income growth in Brazil was low.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Mr. Marcos d Chamon, 2006. "The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2006/275, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/275
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bittencourt, Manoel, 2011. "Inflation and financial development: Evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 91-99.
    2. Manoel Bittencourt, 2010. "Financial development and inequality: Brazil 1985–1994," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 113-130, May.
    3. Manoel Bittencourt, 2007. "Macroeconomic Performance and Inequality: Brazil 1983-1994," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 163, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Naércio Aquino Menezes Filho & Marc-Andreas Muendler, 2007. "Labor Reallocation in Response to Trade Reform," CESifo Working Paper Series 1936, CESifo.
    5. Irineu De Carvalho Filho & Marcos Chamon, 2008. "A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 481-510, July.
    6. Ingvild Almås & Anders Kjelsrud & Rohini Somanathan, 2019. "A Behavior‐Based Approach to the Estimation of Poverty in India," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 182-224, January.
    7. Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America: A Survey of Facts and Arguments," IMF Working Papers 2006/210, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Andrés Langebaek R. & Edgar Caicedo García, 2007. "Sesgo De Medición Del Ipc: Nueva Evidencia Para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3495, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Olinto, Roberto & Pastor, Gonzalo & Rivas, Lisbeth, 2009. "Latin America: highlights from the implementation of the System of National Accounts 1993," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    10. Trevon D. Logan, 2008. "Are Engel Curve Estimates of CPI Bias Biased?," NBER Working Papers 13870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos & Lisbeth Rivas & Mr. Gonzalo C Pastor Campos, 2008. "Latin America: Highlights from the Implementation of the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA)," IMF Working Papers 2008/239, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Ingvild Almas, 2012. "International Income Inequality: Measuring PPP Bias by Estimating Engel Curves for Food," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1093-1117, April.
    13. Pablo Gluzmann & Federico Sturzenegger, 2018. "An estimation of CPI biases in Argentina 1985–2005 and its implications on real income growth and income distribution," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-50, December.
    14. Manoel F. Bittencourt, 2007. "Inflation and Finance: Evidence from Brazil," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 07/163, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.

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