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In Search of Fluctuations: Another Look at China’s Incredibly Stable GDP Growth Rates

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  • Eeva Kerola

    (Bank of Finland)

Abstract

China’s official real GDP growth has held surprisingly stable in recent years. As national GDP figures influence both policy analysis and political decisions, the GDP growth rate of the Chinese economy has also great international implications. Taking the nominal GDP growth and price index data as given and experimenting with alternative deflators, this paper attempts to track missing fluctuations in real GDP growth in recent years. Real GDP growth in the constructed series decreased in 2015–2016, picked up in 2017, and again decelerated in 2018, in contrast to the rather stable official real GDP growth rates of these years. Furthermore, in recent years the constructed growth rate seems to be well below the official figures.

Suggested Citation

  • Eeva Kerola, 2019. "In Search of Fluctuations: Another Look at China’s Incredibly Stable GDP Growth Rates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 359-380, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:61:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1057_s41294-019-00086-z
    DOI: 10.1057/s41294-019-00086-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Wang, Xi & Liu, Ying & Chen, Zhongfei, 2022. "Monetary policy dysregulation with data distortion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Iikka Korhonen, 2019. "Forty Years of Chinese Reforms: An Overview," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 349-358, September.
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    5. Kauko, Karlo, 2019. "Benford's law and Chinese banks' non-performing loans," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kauko, Karlo, 2019. "Benford’s law and Chinese banks’ non-performing loans," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    8. Lai, Pingyao & Zhu, Tian, 2022. "Deflating China's nominal GDP: 2004–2018," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; GDP; Deflators; Principal component;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies

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