IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v36y2008i10p1665-1691.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today About China's Economic Growth Tomorrow

Author

Listed:
  • Holz, Carsten A.

Abstract

Summary This paper examines China's future growth prospects and the potential drivers of future growth using two approaches. It first asks in how far China's recent economic development matches standard growth patterns identified in development economics and trade theory. Second, GDP is decomposed into income components, which in turn are explained, for the reform period, by the quantity and quality of labor; future GDP can then be re-composed from future labor data available today. Overall, China's economic growth is likely to continue at current rates through 2015 before it gradually slows. Such a growth has numerous implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Holz, Carsten A., 2008. "China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today About China's Economic Growth Tomorrow," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1665-1691, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:36:y:2008:i:10:p:1665-1691
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305-750X(08)00150-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    2. Yingyi Qian, 2000. "The Process of China's Market Transition (1978-1998): The Evolutionary, Historical, and Comparative Perspectives," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 156(1), pages 151-151, March.
    3. Heckman, James J., 2005. "China's human capital investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 50-70.
    4. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    5. Carsten A. Holz, 2006. "China'S Reform Period Economic Growth: How Reliable Are Angus Maddison'S Estimates? Response To Angus Maddison'S Reply," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(3), pages 471-475, September.
    6. Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 385-406, June.
    7. Paul A. Samuelson, 2004. "Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 135-146, Summer.
    8. Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December.
    9. Woo Wing Thye, 1994. "The Art of Reforming Centrally Planned Economies: Comparing China, Poland, and Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 276-308, June.
    10. Carsten A. Holz, 2006. "CHINA's REFORM PERIOD ECONOMIC GROWTH: HOW RELIABLE ARE ANGUS MADDISON's ESTIMATES?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(1), pages 85-119, March.
    11. Harberger, Arnold C, 1998. "A Vision of the Growth Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 1-32, March.
    12. Wang, Yan & Yao, Yudong, 2003. "Sources of China's economic growth 1952-1999: incorporating human capital accumulation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 32-52.
    13. Chow, Gregory C & Li, Kui-Wai, 2002. "China's Economic Growth: 1952-2010," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 247-256, October.
    14. Colin A. Carter & Scott Rozelle, 2001. "Will China become a Major Force in World Food Markets?," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 319-331.
    15. Angus Maddison, 2006. "DO OFFICIAL STATISTICS EXAGGERATE CHINA's GDP GROWTH? A REPLY TO CARSTEN HOLZ," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(1), pages 121-126, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng, Jinghai & Bigsten, Arne & Hu, Angang, 2009. "Can China's Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 874-888, April.
    2. Kerola, Eeva, 2018. "In search of fluctuations : Another look at China’s incredibly stable GDP growth," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Chamon, Marcos & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2014. "Consumption based estimates of urban Chinese growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 126-137.
    4. Eeva Kerola, 2019. "In Search of Fluctuations: Another Look at China’s Incredibly Stable GDP Growth Rates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 359-380, September.
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
    7. Diego Romero-Ávila, 2013. "Is Physical Investment The Key To China'S Growth Miracle?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 1948-1971, October.
    8. John Knight & Sai Ding, 2008. "Why has China Grown so Fast? The Role of Structural Change," Economics Series Working Papers 415, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Holz, Carsten A., 2006. "New capital estimates for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 142-185.
    10. Kwan, Fung & Zhang, Yang & Zhuo, Shuaihe, 2018. "Labour reallocation, productivity growth and dualism: The case of China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 198-210.
    11. Zhu, Xi & Whalley, John & Zhao, Xiliang, 2014. "Intergenerational transfer, human capital and long-term growth in China under the one child policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 275-283.
    12. Li, Kui-Wai & Liu, Tung, 2011. "Economic and productivity growth decomposition: An application to post-reform China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 366-373.
    13. WU, Jidong & LI, Ning & SHI, Peijun, 2014. "Benchmark wealth capital stock estimations across China's 344 prefectures: 1978 to 2012," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 288-302.
    14. Lili Kang & Fei Peng, 2018. "Economic Reform and Productivity Convergence in China," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 17(1), pages 50-82, June.
    15. Chen, Shiyi & Jefferson, Gary H. & Zhang, Jun, 2011. "Structural change, productivity growth and industrial transformation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-150, March.
    16. Dale W. Jorgenson & Khuong Vu, 2007. "Information Technology and the World Growth Resurgence," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8, pages 125-145, May.
    17. Minzhe Du & Bing Wang & Yanrui Wu, 2014. "Sources of China’s Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on the BML Index with Green Growth Accounting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(9), pages 1-22, September.
    18. Tara Sinclair & Yeuqing Jia, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World," Working Papers 2010-08, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    19. Fleisher, Belton & Li, Haizheng & Zhao, Min Qiang, 2010. "Human capital, economic growth, and regional inequality in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 215-231, July.
    20. Holz, Carsten A., 2014. "The quality of China's GDP statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 309-338.
    21. Li, Kui-Wai, 2009. "China's total factor productivity estimates by region, investment sources and ownership," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 213-230, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth growth accounting growth forecasts development theories education China;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:36:y:2008:i:10:p:1665-1691. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.