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Will China become a Major Force in World Food Markets?

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  • Colin A. Carter
  • Scott Rozelle

Abstract

From the perspective of China's trading partners, few policy issues are as important as China's emergence onto world agricultural markets. In this essay, we argue that if China is to become a modern developed country, a massive structural transformation of China's agricultural sector must occur. We offer a forward-looking vision of China's food economy and its links with the world in the 21st century. We believe that gains from specialization when China moves to a country with specialized family farms will be huge compared to the returns that have resulted from decollectivization. Following a structural revolution in China's agricultural sector, China will become a major force in world food markets. This transformation will be characterized by land reform, a massive shift of labor out of agriculture, expanded farm size, a significant change in regional cropping patterns, more interprovincial trade, and greater international trade. This structural transformation will occur as long as there is strong economic and political pressure to raise agricultural labor productivity, liberalize markets, boost the rule of law, and increase per capita farm incomes relative to urban incomes

Suggested Citation

  • Colin A. Carter & Scott Rozelle, 2001. "Will China become a Major Force in World Food Markets?," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 319-331.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:23:y:2001:i:2:p:319-331.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1467-9353.00064
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhuang, Renan & Abbott, Philip, 2007. "Price elasticities of key agricultural commodities in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 155-169.
    2. Wang, H. Holly & Ke, Bingfan, 2003. "Is China'S Agricultural Futures Market Efficient?," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25806, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Khan, Shahbaz & Hanjra, Munir A. & Mu, Jianxin, 2009. "Water management and crop production for food security in China: A review," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 349-360, March.
    4. Holz, Carsten A., 2008. "China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today About China's Economic Growth Tomorrow," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1665-1691, October.
    5. Jialu Liu, 2011. "Human capital, migration and rural entrepreneurship in China," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(2), pages 100-122, September.
    6. Malini L Tantri & Kumar Shaurav, 2018. "Food security in BRICS – Current status and issues," Working Papers 419, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    7. H. Holly Wang & Bingfan Ke, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 125-141, June.
    8. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi & Eleonora Lorenzini, 2014. "Food competition in world markets: Some evidence from a panel data analysis of top exporting countries," DEM Working Papers Series 083, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    9. McErlean, Seamus & Wu, Ziping, 2003. "Regional agricultural labour productivity convergence in China," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 237-252, June.
    10. Gale, Fred & Hansen, James & Jewison, Michael, 2015. "China’s Growing Demand for Agricultural Imports," Economic Information Bulletin 198800, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. repec:rre:publsh:v:38:y:2008:i:3:p:343-59 is not listed on IDEAS

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