The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?
AbstractThe Chinese statistical authorities recently revised the Chinese GDP level and real growth rate for the period 1993-2004 following China's first national economic census for 2004. However, the methodology used in their revision is opaque. Using a trend- deviation interpolation approach, this study has managed to replicate the basic procedures of the revision and reproduced the official estimates. Through this exercise, we have found that the estimates that could be obtained by the straightforward interpolation procedures were significantly modified. Based on a political economy argument, we attempt to explain why the revision had to leave the growth rate of 1998 intact and why it had to bypass the price issue and directly work on the real growth rate revision. Based on previous studies and other observations, we also question the census results on non-service industries. (c) 2007 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal Asian Economic Papers.
Volume (Year): 6 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers 2012-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Chao Li & John Gibson, 2012.
"Rising Regional Inequality in China: Fact or Artefact?,"
Working Papers in Economics
12/09, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
- Li, Chao & Gibson, John, 2013. "Rising Regional Inequality in China: Fact or Artifact?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 16-29.
- Chen, Yen-Hsiao & Quan, Lianfeng & Liu, Yang, 2013. "An empirical investigation on the temporal properties of China's GDP," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 69-81.
- Zhang, Chunni & Xu, Qi & Zhang, Xiaobo & Xie, Yu, 2013. "An evaluation of poverty prevalence in China: New evidence from four recent surveys:," IFPRI discussion papers 1293, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Carsten A. Holz, 2014.
"The Quality of China’s GDP Statistics,"
a/ Working Papers Series
1403, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
- Wu, Harry X., 2011. "The Real Growth of Chinese Industry Debate Revisited--Reconstructing China's Industrial GDP in 1949-2008--," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 62(3), pages 209-224, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.