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Risk Management with Interdependent Choice

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Author Info

  • Morris, Stephen
  • Shin, Hyun Song

Abstract

Risks faced by traders from price movements are sometimes magnified by the actions of other traders. Risk-management systems which neglect this feature may give a seriously misleading picture of the true risks. The hazards arising from this potential blindspot are at their most dangerous when the prevailing conventional wisdom lulls traders into a false sense of security on the attractiveness of a trading position. The efforts of one trader to reverse his trade makes more acute the need to follow suit on the part of others. For markets dominated by traders with short time horizons, such interdependence leads to exaggerated price movements. Estimates of "value at risk" which recognize such interdependence of actions can diverge substantially from those given by conventional techniques. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Review of Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 15 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (Autumn)
Pages: 52-62

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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:15:y:1999:i:3:p:52-62

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  1. Morris, S & Song Shin, H, 1996. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Economics Papers 126, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Miguel A. Segoviano, 2006. "Consistent information multivariate density optimizing methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
  3. Danielsson, Jon, 2002. "The emperor has no clothes: Limits to risk modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1273-1296, July.
  4. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Nada Mora & Claus Puhr, 2009. "Towards a Framework for Quantifying Systemic Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 47-81, September.
  5. Michel Aglietta, 2003. "Le risque systémique dans la finance libéralisée," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 70(1), pages 33-50.
  6. Andrew G Haldane & Jorg Scheibe, 2004. "IMF lending and creditor moral hazard," Bank of England working papers 216, Bank of England.
  7. Ulrich Erlenmaier & Hans Gersbach, 2001. "The Funds Concentration Effect and Discriminatory Bailout," CESifo Working Paper Series 591, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Hyytinen, Ari & Takalo, Tuomas, 2003. "Preventing systemic crises through bank transparency," Research Discussion Papers 25/2003, Bank of Finland.
  9. Philippe Jorion, 2005. "Bank Trading Risk and Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 11037, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Borio, Claudio & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 2004. "Accounting and prudential regulation: from uncomfortable bedfellows to perfect partners?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 111-135, September.
  11. Cumming, Christine & Hirtle, Beverly, 2001. "The challenges of risk management in diversified financial companies," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 3, pages 89-95.
  12. Miguel A. Segoviano, 2006. "Conditional probability of default methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24512, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  13. Miguel Segoviano, 2006. "Conditional Probabilty of Default Methodolgy," FMG Discussion Papers dp558, Financial Markets Group.
  14. Cornelis A. Los & Rossitsa M. Yalamova, 2004. "Multi-Fractal Spectral Analysis of the 1987 Stock Market Crash," Finance 0409050, EconWPA.
  15. Roberto Casarin & Flaminio Squazzoni, 2012. "Financial press and stock markets in times of crisis," Working Papers 2012_04, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  16. Danielsson, Jon & Shin, Hyun Song & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2004. "The impact of risk regulation on price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1069-1087, May.
  17. James O'Brien & Jeremy Berkowitz, 2005. "Estimating Bank Trading Risk: A Factor Model Approach," NBER Working Papers 11608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Spyros Pagratis, 2004. "Co-ordination failure and the role of banks in the resolution of financial distress," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24939, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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