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Insecure old-age security

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  • Mohamed Jellal
  • Francois-Charles Wolff

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the old-age security hypothesis according to which parents rear children because they expect the latter to care for them in their later years. In developing countries where there are no perfect capital markets, children are usually viewed as a potential source of income and as a time-related support in old age. However, investing in children remains risky. By focusing on uncertainty about the parental consumption during old age, we show that there exists a precautionary motive for the demand for children so that fertility of prudent parents is expected to increase. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 54 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 636-648

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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:54:y:2002:i:4:p:636-648

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References

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  1. Mark Kazarosian, 1993. "Precautionary Savings- A Panel Study," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 247, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Wildasin, David E, 1990. "Non-neutrality of Debt with Endogenous Fertility," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 414-28, April.
  3. Jellal, Mohamed & Wolff, Francois-Charles, 2000. "Shaping intergenerational relationships: the demonstration effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 255-261, September.
  4. Barmby, T & Cigno, A, 1990. "A Sequential Probability Model of Fertility Patterns," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 31-51, April.
  5. Appelbaum, Elie & Katz, Eliakim, 1991. "The Demand for Children in the Absence of Capital and Risk Markets: A Portfolio Approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 292-304, April.
  6. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio Camillo, 1992. "The Effects of Financial Markets and Social Security on Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 319-41.
  7. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
  8. Rosati, Furio Camillo, 1996. "Social security in a non-altruistic model with uncertainty and endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 283-294, May.
  9. Jensen, Eric R, 1990. "An Econometric Analysis of the Old-Age Security Motive for Childbearing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(4), pages 953-68, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andreas Schäfer & Simone Valente, 2007. "Habit Formation, Dynastic Altruism, and Population Dynamics," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 07/77, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  2. Jellal, Mohamed & Bouzahzah, Mohamed, 2012. "Social security family finance and demography," MPRA Paper 38804, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Appelbaum, Elie & Katz, Eliakim, 1991. "The Demand for Children in the Absence of Capital and Risk Markets: A Portfolio Approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 292-304, April.
  4. Carmen Li & Javier Olivera, 2005. "Participation in the Peruvian reformed pension system," Economics Discussion Papers 592, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  5. Sarmistha Pal, 2006. "Elderly Health, Wealth and Co-residence with Adult Children in Rural India," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 06-09, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
  6. Pal, Sarmistha, 2007. "Effects of Intergenerational Transfers on Elderly Coresidence with Adult Children: Evidence from Rural India," IZA Discussion Papers 2847, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Sarmistha Pal, 2004. "Do Children Act As Old Age Security in Rural India? Evidence from an Analysis of Elderly Living Arrangements," Labor and Demography 0405002, EconWPA, revised 15 Oct 2004.
  8. Solveig Cunningham & Kathryn Yount & Michal Engelman & Emily Agree, 2013. "Returns on Lifetime Investments in Children in Egypt," Demography, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 699-724, April.

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