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The pandemic economic crisis, precautionary behavior, and mobility constraints: an application of the dynamic disequilibrium model with randomness†
[A new view of technological change]

Author

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  • Joseph E Stiglitz
  • Martin M Guzman

Abstract

This article analyzes the economic impact of the pandemic, providing insights into the consequences of alternative policies. Our framework focuses on three key features: (i) The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a sectoral shock of unknown depth and duration affecting some sectors and technologies more than others; (ii) there are constraints in shifting resources across sectors; and (iii) there is a high level of uncertainty about the disease and its economic aftermath, inducing a high level of precautionary behavior by some agents and leading to others facing more severe credit constraints. Because of macroeconomic externalities, precautionary behavior exacerbates the downturn, and even sectors where COVID-19 does not directly affect consumption or production may face unemployment. Multipliers associated with different government expenditure programs differ markedly. The article describes policies that can mitigate precautionary behavior, leading to reduced unemployment. Greater wage flexibility may lead to increased unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph E Stiglitz & Martin M Guzman, 2021. "The pandemic economic crisis, precautionary behavior, and mobility constraints: an application of the dynamic disequilibrium model with randomness† [A new view of technological change]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(2), pages 467-497.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:30:y:2021:i:2:p:467-497.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/icc/dtab012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beniamino Callegari & Christophe Feder, 2022. "A Literature Review of Pandemics and Development: the Long-Term Perspective," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 183-212, March.
    2. Beniamino Callegari & Christophe Feder, 2022. "The long-term economic effects of pandemics: toward an evolutionary approach [Epidemics and trust: the case of the Spanish flu]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(3), pages 715-735.

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    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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