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The Impact of Country Risk Ratings and of the Status of EU Integration on FDI Inflows in CESEE Countries

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Abstract

We analyze the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the ten EU Member States, plus Croatia, in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) over the period from 1995 to 2011, with a particular focus on the effects of country risk ratings and the EU integration status on a country’s attractiveness for FDI. We distinguish between twelve different risk ratings and seven stages of integration (non-EU country, potential candidate country, candidate country, negotiating country, EU Member State, ERM II member country and euro area country). Using quarterly data, we identify the market size and cost factors as the most important determinants, suggesting that market- and efficiency-seeking FDI were the most prevalent forms of FDI in the region. The host country’s infrastructural environment also has the expected positive effect on FDI inflows. The effects of risk ratings turn out to be nonlinear in the sense that improvements in intermediate risk levels have the largest positive effect on FDI, while this effect diminishes in the case of upgrades at the highest levels. Turning to the status of EU integration, a more advanced stage represents an additional bonus over pure cost- and market-related factors, but only up to the onset of the global financial and economic crisis.

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File URL: http://www.oenb.at/dms/oenb/Publikationen/Volkswirtschaft/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration/2012/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration-Q3-12/chapters/feei_2012_q3_studies1_tcm16-249595.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Focus on European Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2012:i:3:b:1

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Keywords: Foreign direct investment; European integration; country risk ratings;

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References

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  1. Carstensen, Kai & Toubal, Farid, 2004. "Foreign direct investment in Central and Eastern European countries: a dynamic panel analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 3-22, March.
  2. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
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  4. Laura Resmini, 1999. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment into the CEECs: New Evidence from Sectoral Patterns," LICOS Discussion Papers 8399, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  5. Peter Nunnenkamp, 2002. "Die Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf die Direktinvestitionen und deren Rückwirkungen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(11), pages 13-19, 06.
  6. Bevan, Alan A. & Estrin, Saul, 2004. "The determinants of foreign direct investment into European transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 775-787, December.
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  8. Chakrabarti, Avik, 2001. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: Sensitivity Analyses of Cross-Country Regressions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 89-113.
  9. Mintz, Jack M. & Weichenrieder, Alfons J., 2010. "The Indirect Side of Direct Investment: Multinational Company Finance and Taxation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262014491, December.
  10. Fritz Breuss & Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, . "The Impact of Agenda 2000's Structural Policy Reform on FDI in the EU," WIFO Working Papers 150, WIFO.
  11. Peter Backé & Sonsoles Gallego & Sándor Gardó & Reiner Martin & Luis Molina & José Maria Serena, 2010. "How Did the Global Financial Crisis Affect the CESEE Region and Latin America? – A Comparative Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.
  12. Jarko Fidrmuc & Reiner Martin, 2011. "FDI, Trade and Growth in CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.
  13. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2003. "The effects of transition and political instability on foreign direct investment: Central Europe and the Balkans," ZEI Working Papers B 28-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  14. Vladimir Kuhl Teles & Maria Carolina Leme, 2010. "Fundamentals or market sentiment: what causes country risk?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(20), pages 2577-2585.
  15. Alan A. Bevan & Saul Estrin, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 342, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
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