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Slovakia: A Catching Up Euro Area Member In and Out of the Crisis

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  • Jarko Fidrmuc
  • Caroline Klein
  • Robert Price
  • Andreas Wörgötter

Abstract

The Slovak economy experienced a strong but short recession in 2009. The recovery afterwards was driven by exports and investment. While GDP growth was one of the strongest in OECD, employment did not reach the pre-crisis level and unemployment remains stubbornly high. This paper argues that Slovakia joined the euro area after a period of unprecedented real appreciation, which generated a threat for competitiveness of its export-oriented manufacturing industry. The response combined internal devaluation with productivity increasing measures, including capital deepening and laying off low productivity workers. While this strategy was successfully restoring an external equilibrium, its consequences for domestic demand and employment are less positive. This development is compared with Estonia and Slovenia, two other small and very open economies, recently entering the euro area. Slovaquie : Un membre de la zone euro en rattrapage pendant et après la crise En 2009, l'économie slovaque a connu une récession forte mais de courte durée. Par la suite, la reprise a été tirée par les exportations et l'investissement. Alors que la croissance du PIB a été l'une des plus fortes de l'OCDE, l'emploi n'a pas atteint le niveau d'avant la crise et le chômage reste durablement élevé. Cet article soutient que la Slovaquie a rejoint la zone euro après une période d'appréciation réelle sans précédent qui a généré une menace pour la compétitivité de son industrie exportatrice. La réponse a consisté en une dévaluation interne combinée à des mesures augmentant la productivité, comprenant entre autres l'accroissement de l’intensité capitalistique et le licenciement des travailleurs à faible productivité. Bien que cette stratégie ait permis la restauration d'un équilibre extérieur, ses conséquences sur la demande intérieure et l'emploi sont moins positives. Ce processus est comparé avec ceux observés en Estonie et Slovénie, deux autres petites économies très ouvertes, récemment entrées dans la zone euro.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 1019.

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Date of creation: 05 Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1019-en

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Keywords: Slovakia; Slovenia; Estonia; crisis; job-less recovery; domestic demand; Slovaquie; Slovénie; Estonie; crise; reprise sans l'emploi; demande intérieure;

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References

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  1. Jarko Fidrmuc & Matus Senaj, 2012. "Human Capital, Consumption, and Housing Wealth in Transition," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2012, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  2. Andrés Fuentes, 2007. "Improving Employment Prospects in the Slovak Republic: Building on Past Reforms," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 579, OECD Publishing.
  3. Zuzana Brixiova & Margaret Morgan & Andreas Wörgötter, 2009. "Estonia and Euro Adoption: Small Country Challenges of Joining EMU," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 728, OECD Publishing.
  4. Zuzana Brixiova & Balazs Egert, 2012. "Labour Market Reforms and Outcomes in Estonia," CESifo Working Paper Series 3756, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hainz, Christa, 2010. "Default rates in the loan market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 133-147, June.
  6. Backé, Peter & Wójcik, Cezary, 2008. "Credit booms, monetary integration and the new neoclassical synthesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 458-470, March.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2001. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," Working Paper Series rwp01-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  8. Brixiova, Zuzana & Vartia, Laura & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2010. "Capital flows and the boom-bust cycle: The case of Estonia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 55-72, March.
  9. Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2008. "EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 562-576, 08.
  10. Calvo, Guillermo & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Ottonello, Pablo, 2012. "The Labor Market Consequences of Financial Crises With or Without Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2008. "A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 433-457, August.
  12. repec:wdi:papers:2011-1027 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2012. "Real Exchange Rate Adjustment in and out of the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 179-85, May.
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