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Using Regression Discontinuity to Uncover the Personal Incumbency Advantage

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  • Erikson, Robert S.
  • Titiunik, Rocío

Abstract

We study the conditions under which a regression discontinuity (RD) design can be used to recover the personal incumbency advantage, a quantity that has long been of interest to political scientists. We offer an expanded interpretation of the RD design that allows us to back out unbiased estimates of this quantity by focusing on open seats — elections with no incumbent running. Our focus on open seats avoids including in the personal incumbency advantage estimate the spurious advantage that stems from incumbents' higher than average quality — a result of electoral selection. A central result of our model is that the RD design double-counts the personal incumbency advantage because each of the two groups of districts compared in the RD estimand has an incumbent running for reelection at the time the outcome is measured. We provide a brief empirical illustration of our model that analyzes northern open-seat U.S. House elections between 1968 and 2008, and we also discuss how this setup can be used to study incumbent races, where the required assumptions are more complex. A version of our model in its full generality - and a discussion of the assumptions it requires — is presented in the Supplemental Appendix.

Suggested Citation

  • Erikson, Robert S. & Titiunik, Rocío, 2015. "Using Regression Discontinuity to Uncover the Personal Incumbency Advantage," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 10(1), pages 101-119, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jlqjps:100.00013137
    DOI: 10.1561/100.00013137
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    Cited by:

    1. Lippmann, Quentin, 2023. "Persistence of incumbents and female access to political positions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 327-349.
    2. Ercio Andres Munoz, 2021. "Incumbency advantage, money, and campaigns: A note on some suggestive evidence from Chile," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1203-1211.
    3. Ari Hyytinen & Jaakko Meriläinen & Tuukka Saarimaa & Otto Toivanen & Janne Tukiainen, 2018. "When does regression discontinuity design work? Evidence from random election outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 1019-1051, July.
    4. González, Felipe & Muñoz, Pablo & Prem, Mounu, 2021. "Lost in transition? The persistence of dictatorship mayors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Fiva, Jon H. & Smith, Daniel M., 2018. "Political Dynasties and the Incumbency Advantage in Party-Centered Environments," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(3), pages 706-712, August.
    6. Cécile Aubert & Huihui Ding, 2022. "Voter conformism and inefficient policies," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 59(1), pages 207-249, July.
    7. Bartalotti, Otávio C. & Calhoun, Gray & He, Yang, 2016. "Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Sharp Regression Discontinuity Designs with the Uniform Kernel," Staff General Research Papers Archive 3394, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Prato, Carlo & Wolton, Stephane, 2014. "Electoral Imbalances and their Consequences," MPRA Paper 68650, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Nov 2015.
    9. Bennett, Daniel L. & Long, Jason T., 2019. "Is it the economic policy, stupid? Economic policy, political parties & the gubernatorial incumbent advantage," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 118-137.
    10. Leandro de Magalhaes & Salomo Hirvonen, 2019. "The Incumbent-Challenger Advantage and the Winner-Runner-up Advantage," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 19/710, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    11. Song, B.K., 2022. "The longer-term electoral effect of carrying a state in U.S. presidential elections," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Kai A. Konrad & Raisa Sherif, 2019. "Sanctioning, selection, and pivotality in voting: theory and experimental results," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 330-357, September.
    13. Fiva, Jon H. & Røhr, Helene Lie, 2018. "Climbing the ranks: incumbency effects in party-list systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 142-156.

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