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Trends in the development of world trade in recent decades and current challenges for its development

Author

Listed:
  • Knobel, A.

    (International Trade Center at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
    Institute of International Economics and Finance at the Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russia)

  • Pyzhikov, N.

    (Institute of International Economics and Finance at the Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russia)

  • Aliev, T.

    (Russian APEC study Center under RANEPA, Moscow, Russia
    Institute of International Economics and Finance at the Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

Over the past 30 years the world trade has undergone significant changes due to a combination of factors, including the establishment of the WTO and the rules of the multilateral trading system, the emergence of a network of regional trade agreements as well as deeper forms of integration, the increasing role of developing countries. This paper analyzes the reasons for the changes that have taken place, as well as current challenges that contribute to the slowdown of global trade. They include the accumulation of structural problems leading to the current crisis of the multilateral trade system and, in particular, the transition of trade conflicts to a new stage. Along with the direct effects generated as a result of the imposition of protectionist measures, the significance of indirect effects is growing against the background of the current events - there is a growing trade and political uncertainty affecting international trade flows. It is unlikely that global trade growth will recover soon, due to structural problems that need to be resolved multilaterally. Small positive effects are possible in case of gradual de-escalation of trade conflicts, but the current outcomes do not allow to draw certain conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Knobel, A. & Pyzhikov, N. & Aliev, T., 2020. "Trends in the development of world trade in recent decades and current challenges for its development," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 174-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2020:i:45:p:174-182
    DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2020-45-1-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mikhail Khromov & Sergey Drobyshevsky & Alexander Knobel & Marina Turuntseva & Kirill Rogov & Georgy Idrisov & Yuriy Ponomarev & Sergey Tsukhlo & Elena Avraamova & Dmitriy Loginov, 2015. "Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook," Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development (In Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 10, pages 1-40, June.
    2. Andreas Dür & Leonardo Baccini & Manfred Elsig, 2014. "The design of international trade agreements: Introducing a new dataset," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 353-375, September.
    3. Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) & Aliev, Timur (Алиев, Тимур) & Pyzhikov, Nikita (Пыжиков, Никита) & Flegontova, Tatiana (Флегонтова, Татьяна), 2019. "Trade and globalization: events of the past thirty years and further evolutionary trajectories [Торговля И Глобализация: События Последних Тридцати Лет И Дальнейшие Эволюционные Траектории]," Published Papers 021923, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    4. Dür, Andreas & Baccini, Leonardo & Elsig, Manfred, 2014. "The design of international trade agreements: introducing a new dataset," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59179, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2020. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(2), pages 285-308, September.
    6. Henn, Christian & Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik, 2015. "The layers of the IT Agreement's trade impact," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2015-01, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    7. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 0. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 0, pages 1-24.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    world trade; trade policy; international trade organizations; protectionism; trade liberalization; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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