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Incertidumbre en los proyectos de investigación y desarrollo (I+D). Un estudio de la literatura

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  • Samaniego Alcántar Ángel

    (Instituto de Estudios)

Abstract

Due to the high level of uncertainty of research and development (R&D) investment projects, such projects are undertaken by stages. At different points in time those projects are reviewed as options to continue or abandon them arise. This decision depends upon signals provided by the projects themselves during their investment time-frame (conclusion of a research stage, product demand, raw materials price, competition, among others). Given this high uncertainty about risks in R&D projects it is difficult to value them, which may lead to either overvalue or undervalue them. This article attempts to present recent advances on the subject by identifying problems and methodologies under study in recent years. In general, currently used methodologies are categorized within multi-criteria analyses, options theory, and the theory of possibilities from a fuzzy-sets perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Samaniego Alcántar Ángel, 2010. "Incertidumbre en los proyectos de investigación y desarrollo (I+D). Un estudio de la literatura," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 55(3), pages 65-81, septiembr.
    • Handle: RePEc:nax:conyad:v:55:y:2010:i:3:p:65-81
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dapena, Jose Pablo, 2003. "On the Valuation of Companies with Growth Opportunities," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6(1), pages 1-24, May.
    2. Wang, Juite & Hwang, W.-L., 2007. "A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 247-257, June.
    3. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    5. Yew Kee Ho & Mira Tjahjapranata & Chee Meng Yap, 2006. "Size, Leverage, Concentration, and R&D Investment in Generating Growth Opportunities," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 851-876, March.
    6. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    7. Wang, Juite, 2004. "A fuzzy robust scheduling approach for product development projects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 152(1), pages 180-194, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Susana Sarmiento Paredes & Verónica Nava Mozo & Jorge Carro Suárez & Celia Hernández Cortés, 2018. "Estudio comparativo de los factores de innovación en la pequeña y mediana empresa de manufactura textil," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 63(3), pages 20-21, Julio-Sep.
    2. Susana Sarmiento Paredes & Verónica Nava Mozo & Jorge Carro Suárez & Celia Hernández Cortés, 2018. "Comparative study of innovation factors in the small and medium-sized textile manufacturing enterprise Abstract: The context of innovation has changed and one economy that demands permanent adaptation," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 63(3), pages 22-23, Julio-Sep.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    proyectos de inversión; incertidumbre; conjuntos borrosos; opciones reales; portafolios de inversión;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O22 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Project Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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