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Influence of CO2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation

Author

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  • Thomas F. Stocker

    (Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern)

  • Andreas Schmittner

    (Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern)

Abstract

Present estimates of the future oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 and calculations of CO2-emission scenarios1 are based on the assumption that the natural carbon cycle is in steady state. But it iswell known from palaeoclimate records2,3,4,5 and modelling studies6,7,8,9 that the climate system has more than one equilibrium state, and that perturbations can trigger transitions between them. Anticipated future changes in today's climate system due to human activities have the potential to weaken the thermohaline circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean10,11,12, which would greatly modify estimates of future oceanic CO2 uptake13. Here we use a simple coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model to show that the Atlantic thermohaline circulation is not only sensitive to the final atmospheric CO2 concentration attained, but also depends on the rate of change of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. A modelled increase to 750 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) CO2 within 100 years (corresponding approximately to a continuation of today's growth rate) leads to a permanent shut-down of the thermohaline circulation. If the final atmospheric concentration of 750 p.p.m.v. CO2 is attained more slowly, the thermohaline circulation simply slows down. The reason for this rate-sensitive response of the climate system lies with the transfer of buoyancy in the form of heat and fresh water from the uppermost layers of the ocean into the deep waters below. This sensitivity of the simulated thermohaline circulation to the rate ofchange of atmospheric CO2 concentration has potentially important implications for the choice of future CO2-emission scenarios1.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas F. Stocker & Andreas Schmittner, 1997. "Influence of CO2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation," Nature, Nature, vol. 388(6645), pages 862-865, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:388:y:1997:i:6645:d:10.1038_42224
    DOI: 10.1038/42224
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    Cited by:

    1. Brozovic, Nicholas & Schlenker, Wolfram, 2011. "Optimal management of an ecosystem with an unknown threshold," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 627-640, February.
    2. Mariia Belaia & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2017. "Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(1), pages 93-125, May.
    3. Keller, Klaus & Bolker, Benjamin M. & Bradford, D.F.David F., 2004. "Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 723-741, July.
    4. Fabien Prieur, 2009. "The environmental Kuznets curve in a world of irreversibility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 40(1), pages 57-90, July.
    5. Klaus Keller & Louise I. Miltich & Alexander Robinson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "How overconfident are current projections of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions?," Working Papers FNU-124, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2007.
    6. Jim W. Hall & Robert J. Lempert & Klaus Keller & Andrew Hackbarth & Christophe Mijere & David J. McInerney, 2012. "Robust Climate Policies Under Uncertainty: A Comparison of Robust Decision Making and Info‐Gap Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(10), pages 1657-1672, October.
    7. Megan Ceronsky & David Anthoff & Cameron Hepburn & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Checking The Price Tag On Catastrophe: The Social Cost Of Carbon Under Non-Linear Climate Response," Working Papers FNU-87, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2005.
    8. Naevdal, Eric, 2006. "Dynamic optimisation in the presence of threshold effects when the location of the threshold is uncertain - with an application to a possible disintegration of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1131-1158, July.
    9. Lempert, Robert J. & Sanstad, Alan H. & Schlesinger, Michael E., 2006. "Multiple equilibria in a stochastic implementation of DICE with abrupt climate change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 677-689, November.
    10. Kingwell, Ross S., 2006. "Is Hanrahan sort of right? Will climate change ruin us all?," 2006 Conference (50th), February 8-10, 2006, Sydney, Australia 137961, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    11. Bo Liu & Fangyuan Zhao & Jinpeng Xu & Yueming Qi, 2019. "Experimental Investigation and Numerical Simulation of CO 2 –Brine–Rock Interactions during CO 2 Sequestration in a Deep Saline Aquifer," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    12. Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "Europe's long-term climate target: A critical evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 424-432, January.
    13. repec:pri:wwseco:dp224 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Kingwell, Ross S., 2006. "Climate change in Australia: agricultural impacts and adaptation," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 14.
    15. David McInerney & Robert Lempert & Klaus Keller, 2012. "What are robust strategies in the face of uncertain climate threshold responses?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 547-568, June.
    16. Klaus Keller & Kelvin Tan & Francois M.M. Morel & David F. Bradford, 1999. "Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 199, CESifo.
    17. T. Bruckner & K. Zickfeld, 2009. "Emissions corridors for reducing the risk of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 61-83, January.
    18. P. Link & Richard Tol, 2011. "Estimation of the economic impact of temperature changes induced by a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 287-304, January.
    19. Hall, Darwin C. & Behl, Richard J., 2006. "Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 442-465, May.
    20. Bahn, Olivier & Edwards, Neil R. & Knutti, Reto & Stocker, Thomas F., 2011. "Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 334-348, January.

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