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Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

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  • Bahn, Olivier
  • Edwards, Neil R.
  • Knutti, Reto
  • Stocker, Thomas F.

Abstract

Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems.

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  • Bahn, Olivier & Edwards, Neil R. & Knutti, Reto & Stocker, Thomas F., 2011. "Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 334-348, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:334-348
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    2. Riddhi Singh & Julianne D Quinn & Patrick M Reed & Klaus Keller, 2018. "Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    3. Arthur Ssebbugga-Kimeze, 2022. "Opting for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Uganda: a non-cooperative game," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 1-11, August.
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    6. Zhaolin Hu & Jing Cao & L. Jeff Hong, 2012. "Robust Simulation of Global Warming Policies Using the DICE Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(12), pages 2190-2206, December.

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