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Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Frank

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Petr Havlík

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Elke Stehfest

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Hans Meijl

    (Wageningen Economic Research)

  • Peter Witzke

    (University of Bonn)

  • Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Michiel Dijk

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Wageningen Economic Research)

  • Jonathan C. Doelman

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Thomas Fellmann

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Jason F. L. Koopman

    (Wageningen Economic Research)

  • Andrzej Tabeau

    (Wageningen Economic Research)

  • Hugo Valin

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions represent around 10–12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and have a key role to play in achieving a 1.5 °C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target. Using a multi-model assessment approach, we quantify the potential contribution of agriculture to the 1.5 °C target and decompose the mitigation potential by emission source, region and mitigation mechanism. The results show that the livestock sector will be vital to achieve emission reductions consistent with the 1.5 °C target mainly through emission-reducing technologies or structural changes. Agriculture may contribute emission reductions of 0.8–1.4 Gt of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) yr−1 at just US$20 per tCO2e in 2050. Combined with dietary changes, emission reductions can be increased to 1.7–1.8 GtCO2e yr−1. At carbon prices compatible with the 1.5 °C target, agriculture could even provide average emission savings of 3.9 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2050, which represents around 8% of current GHG emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Frank & Petr Havlík & Elke Stehfest & Hans Meijl & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez & Michiel Dijk & Jonathan C. Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Jason F. L. Koopman & Andrzej Tabeau & Hugo Va, 2019. "Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 66-72, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0358-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0358-8
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    3. Jensbye, Laerke & Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng, 2022. "Nationally determined contributions and scenarios of agricultural emission reductions at country level," Conference papers 333465, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
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