The determinants of currency market forecasts: an empirical study
AbstractEmpirical studies using surveys of exchange rate expectations have become very popular in the literature. The majority have concluded that short-term currency market activity appears to be inconsistent with the standard neoclassical characterization and that, as a consequence, economists should shift their attention to the long run. This paper, rather than using foreign exchange surveys as an argument for ignoring the short run, treats them as a means of understanding it. To that end, an empirical test is conducted in which the survey results serve as the dependent variable. The results indicate that the expectational variables are not random, but exhibit a pattern. It is further shown that psychological factors play an important role in determining expectations, thus offering support for the Post Keynesian view of currency markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Journal of Post Keynesian Economics.
Volume (Year): 25 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=109348
empirical; exchange rates; expectations; Post Keynesian;
Other versions of this item:
- John Harvey, 2001. "The Determinants of Currency Market Forecasts: An Empirical Study," Working Papers 200102, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Nguyen).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.