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A Fan Chart Approach to Debt Sustainability in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Mehak Ejaz

    (Assistant Professor at Department of Economics, Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology (SZABIST), Pakistan)

  • Kalim Hyder

    (Senior Economist, Monetary Policy Department, State Bank of Pakistan)

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehak Ejaz & Kalim Hyder, 2019. "A Fan Chart Approach to Debt Sustainability in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 1-23, July-Dec.
    • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:24:y:2019:i:2:p:1-23
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    File URL: http://lahoreschoolofeconomics.edu.pk/EconomicsJournal/Journals/Volume%2024/Issue%202/01%20Ejaz%20and%20Hyder.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    3. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
    4. Jean-Marc Fournier, 2019. "A Buffer-Stock Model for the Government: Balancing Stability and Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 2019/159, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2005. "Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2005/006, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2009. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(2), pages 133-173, July-Dece.
    7. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    8. Roberto Rigobon & Marcio Garcia, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an application to Brazilian data," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 24, Econometric Society.
    9. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1989. "Are The Twin Deficits Really Related?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(4), pages 91-115, October.
    10. Asonuma, Tamon, 2014. "Sovereign defaults, external debt and real exchange rate dynamics," MPRA Paper 55133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Anoruo, Emmanuel & Ramchander, Sanjay, 1998. "Current account and fiscal deficits: Evidence from five developing economies of Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 487-501.
    12. Anjum Aqeel & Mohammed Nishat, 2000. "The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 535-550.
    13. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
    14. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," Textos para discussão 484, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    15. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    16. Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/221, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Zoran Grubišiæ & Sandra Kamenkoviæ & Aleksandar Zdravkoviæ, 2018. "Impact of government balance and exchange rate regime on current account during the economic cycle: evidence from CEE countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 309-336.
    18. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
    19. Maximilien Kaffo Melou & Mariusz A. Sumlinski & Chris Geiregat, 2014. "An Application of the "Fan-Chart Approach" to Debt Sustainability in Post-HIPC Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/102, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Fournier, Jean-Marc & Fall, Falilou, 2017. "Limits to government debt sustainability in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 30-41.
    21. Oya Celasun & Mr. Joong S Kang, 2006. "On the Properties of Various Estimators for Fiscal Reaction Functions," IMF Working Papers 2006/182, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-3.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pakistan; public debt; external liabilities; debt sustainability; probabilistic approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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