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Statistical inference for measures of predictive success

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  • Thomas Demuynck

Abstract

We provide statistical inference for measures of predictive success. These measures are frequently used to evaluate and compare the performance of different models of individual and group decision making in experimental and revealed preference studies. We provide a brief illustration of our findings by comparing the predictive success of different revealed preference tests for models of intertemporal decision making. This demonstrates that it is possible to compare the predictive success of different models in a statistically meaningful way. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Demuynck, 2015. "Statistical inference for measures of predictive success," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 79(4), pages 689-699, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:79:y:2015:i:4:p:689-699
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-015-9486-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Mir Adnan Mahmood & John Rehbeck, 2022. "Correcting for Random Budgets in Revealed Preference Experiments," Games, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Laurens Cherchye & Thomas Demuynck & Bram De Rock & Khushboo Surana, 2020. "Revealed Preference Analysis with Normal Goods: Application to Cost-of-Living Indices," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 165-188, August.
    3. Victor H. Aguiar & Roberto Serrano, 2018. "Cardinal Revealed Preference, Price-Dependent Utility, and Consistent Binary Choice," Working Papers 2018-3, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    4. Thomas Demuynck & Christian Seel, 2018. "Revealed Preference with Limited Consideration," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 102-131, February.
    5. Tipoe, Eileen, 2021. "Price inattention: A revealed preference characterisation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Aguiar, Victor H. & Serrano, Roberto, 2021. "Cardinal revealed preference: Disentangling transitivity and consistent binary choice," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Demuynck, Thomas & Hjertstrand, Per, 2019. "Samuelson's Approach to Revealed Preference Theory: Some Recent Advances," Working Paper Series 1274, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Predictive success; Revealed preference; Experimental economics; C10 C90 D12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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