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The hot hand belief and the gambler’s fallacy in investment decisions under risk

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  • Jürgen Huber
  • Michael Kirchler

    ()

  • Thomas Stöckl
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    Abstract

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11238-008-9106-2
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Theory and Decision.

    Volume (Year): 68 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 (April)
    Pages: 445-462

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:68:y:2010:i:4:p:445-462

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100341

    Related research

    Keywords: Hot hand belief; Gambler’s fallacy; Experimental economics; Decision making under risk; C91; D81; G10;

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    References

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    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
    2. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2005. "Individual Risk Attitudes: New Evidence from a Large, Representative, Experimentally-Validated Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 511, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Erik R. Sirri & Peter Tufano, 1998. "Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1589-1622, October.
    4. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
    5. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    6. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
    7. Shapira, Zur & Venezia, Itzhak, 2001. "Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and independent investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1573-1587, August.
    8. Matthew Rabin., 2000. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," Economics Working Papers E00-282, University of California at Berkeley.
    9. Burton G. Malkiel, 2005. "Reflections on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: 30 Years Later," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-9, 02.
    10. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
    11. James Sundali & Rachel Croson, 2006. "Biases in casino betting: The hot hand and the gambler's fallacy," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 1, pages 1-12, July.
    12. Rachel Croson & James Sundali, 2005. "The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 195-209, May.
    13. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Suetens, S. & Tyran, J.R., 2011. "The Gambler's Fallacy and Gender," Discussion Paper 2011-011, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Thomas Stöckl & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner, 2013. "Hot Hand Belief and Gambler's Fallacy in Teams: Evidence from Investment Experiments," Working Papers 2013-04, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.

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