The gambler's fallacy and gender
AbstractThe “gambler's fallacy” is the false belief that a random event is less likely to occur if the event has occurred recently. Such beliefs are false if the onset of events is in fact independent of previous events. We study gender differences in the gambler's fallacy using data from the Danish state lottery. Our data set is unique in that we track individual players over time which allows us to investigate how men and women react with their number picking to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We find evidence of gambler's fallacy for men but not for women. On average, men are about 1% less likely to bet on numbers drawn in the previous week than on numbers not drawn. Women do not react significantly to the previous week's drawing outcome.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.
Volume (Year): 83 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo
Lottery gambling; Gender; Gambler's fallacy;
Other versions of this item:
- D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
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- Jorgensen, C.B. & Suetens, S. & Tyran, J.R., 2011.
"Predicting Lotto Numbers,"
2011-033, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Claus Bjørn Jørgensen & Sigrid Suetens & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2011. "Predicting Lotto Numbers," Discussion Papers 11-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn & Suetens, Sigrid & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2011. "Predicting Lotto Numbers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Karsten Hueffer & Miguel A. Fonseca & Anthony Leiserowitz & Karen M. Taylor, 2013. "The wisdom of crowds: Predicting a weather and climate-related event," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(2), pages 91-105, March.
- Thomas Stöckl & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner, 2013. "Hot Hand Belief and Gambler's Fallacy in Teams: Evidence from Investment Experiments," Working Papers 2013-04, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
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