IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v61y2023i4d10.1007_s11156-023-01189-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy uncertainty and real activities manipulation: evidence from Brexit

Author

Listed:
  • Naser Makarem

    (University of Aberdeen)

  • Harjinder Singh

    (Curtin University)

  • Nigar Sultana

    (Curtin University)

  • Darren Henderson

    (Wilfrid Laurier University)

Abstract

Brexit exposed the UK to substantial policy uncertainty that could affect the performance and behavior of British firms. We examine the impact of Brexit as an exogenous shock to policy uncertainty on real activities manipulation by British firms. Using several measures of real activities manipulation and a difference-in-differences design, we compare the earnings management of firms most adversely affected by Brexit uncertainty (affected firms) to other firms. Our results indicate that the affected firms exhibit higher real activities manipulation after the Brexit vote and we also find that they demonstrate similarly higher accruals management. Our findings suggesting that policy uncertainty induces the costly practice of real activities manipulation are relevant to various stakeholders including policymakers and financial statements users.

Suggested Citation

  • Naser Makarem & Harjinder Singh & Nigar Sultana & Darren Henderson, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and real activities manipulation: evidence from Brexit," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1415-1440, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:61:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-023-01189-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-023-01189-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-023-01189-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-023-01189-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Tian, Xuan & Xu, Yan, 2017. "What Affects Innovation More: Policy or Policy Uncertainty?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 1869-1901, October.
    3. George Bittlingmayer, 1998. "Output, Stock Volatility, and Political Uncertainty in a Natural Experiment: Germany, 1880-1940," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2243-2257, December.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    5. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "The Brexit Vote, Inflation And U.K. Living Standards," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 63-93, February.
    6. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias, 2009. "Alternative Approaches to Evaluation in Empirical Microeconomics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(3).
    7. Ghosh, Dipankar & Olsen, Lori, 2009. "Environmental uncertainty and managers' use of discretionary accruals," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 188-205, February.
    8. Swati Dhingra & Thomas Sampson, 2016. "Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?," CEP Brexit Analysis Papers 01, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    10. Angus Armstrong & Jonathan Portes, 2016. "Commentary: The Economic Consequences of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 2-6, May.
    11. Roychowdhury, Sugata, 2006. "Earnings management through real activities manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 335-370, December.
    12. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
    14. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    15. Nguyen, Nam H. & Phan, Hieu V., 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 613-644, April.
    16. Li, Valerie, 2019. "The effect of real earnings management on the persistence and informativeness of earnings," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 402-423.
    17. Weihong Xu, 2016. "Accruals Management to Avoid Losses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9-10), pages 1095-1120, October.
    18. Swati Dhingra & Stephen Machin & Henry Overman, 2017. "Local Economic Effects of Brexit," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 242(1), pages 24-36, November.
    19. Xuejun Jin & Ziqing Chen & Xiaolan Yang, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1291-1318, March.
    20. Armstrong, Angus & Portes, Jonathan, 2016. "The economic consequences of leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236, pages 2-6, May.
    21. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008. "Stock market volatility around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
    22. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 163-184, Fall.
    23. Pappas, Kostas & Walsh, Eamonn & Xu, Alice Liang, 2019. "Real earnings management and loan contract terms," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 373-401.
    24. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2017. "The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 317-331, September.
    25. Katherine A. Gunny, 2010. "The Relation Between Earnings Management Using Real Activities Manipulation and Future Performance: Evidence from Meeting Earnings Benchmarks," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 855-888, September.
    26. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    27. McNichols, Maureen F., 2000. "Research design issues in earnings management studies," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4-5), pages 313-345.
    28. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Scarlet Chen & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Greg Thwaites & Garry Young, 2018. "Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 555-580, December.
    29. Jones, Jj, 1991. "Earnings Management During Import Relief Investigations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 193-228.
    30. Audrey Wen-Hsin Hsu & Chih-Hsien Liao, 2023. "Auditor industry specialization and real earnings management," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 607-641, February.
    31. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra Todd, 1998. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(2), pages 261-294.
    32. Vikash Ramiah & Huy N. A. Pham & Imad Moosa, 2017. "The sectoral effects of Brexit on the British economy: early evidence from the reaction of the stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(26), pages 2508-2514, June.
    33. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    34. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    35. Hill, Paula & Korczak, Adriana & Korczak, Piotr, 2019. "Political uncertainty exposure of individual companies: The case of the Brexit referendum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 58-76.
    36. Cohen, Daniel A. & Zarowin, Paul, 2010. "Accrual-based and real earnings management activities around seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 2-19, May.
    37. Tao Huang & Fei Wu & Jin Yu & Bohui Zhang, 2015. "Political risk and dividend policy: Evidence from international political crises," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 46(5), pages 574-595, June.
    38. Ge, Wenxia & Kim, Jeong-Bon, 2014. "Real earnings management and the cost of new corporate bonds," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 641-647.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheng, Mengyao, 2022. "Legislative gridlock and stock return dispersion around roll-call votes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Mario Daniele Amore & Margherita Corina, 2021. "Political elections and corporate investment: International evidence," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(9), pages 1775-1796, December.
    4. Huang, Ying Sophie & Wu, Jiajia & Guo, Feng, 2022. "Venture capital staging under economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 572-596.
    5. Paudyal, Krishna & Thapa, Chandra & Koirala, Santosh & Aldhawyan, Sulaiman, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cross-border mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    7. Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq & Aziz, Saqib & El-Khatib, Rwan & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and dividend payout," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    9. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    10. Tran, Dung Viet & Hassan, M. Kabir & Alam, Ahmed W. & Pezzo, Luca & Abdul-Majid, Mariani, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, agency problem, and funding structure: Evidence from U.S. banking industry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Wang, Fengrong & Mbanyele, William & Muchenje, Linda, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock liquidity: The mitigating effect of information disclosure," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    12. Hua Cheng & Kishore Gawande & Steven Ongena & Shusen Qi, 2020. "Get beyond policy uncertainty: Evidence from political connections," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-77, Swiss Finance Institute.
    13. Xue, Xingnan & Hu, Nan, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and imitation behaviors of corporate social responsibility practices: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Kwabi, Frank Obenpong & Boateng, Agyenim & Wonu, Chizindu & Kariuki, Charles & Du, Anna, 2023. "Political uncertainty and cross-border equity portfolio allocation decisions: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    15. Eiler, Lisa A. & Filzen, Joshua J. & Jackson, Mark & Tama-Sweet, Isho, 2021. "Real earnings management and the properties of analysts' forecasts," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    16. Tran, Dung Viet & Nguyen, Cuong, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and bank’s funding costs: The effects of the financial crisis, Covid-19 pandemic, and market discipline," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Dang, Man & Nguyen, Ngoc Vu & Mazur, Mieszko & Puwanenthiren, Premkanth & Nguyen, Ngoc Thang, 2021. "Global policy uncertainty and cross-border acquisitions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 224-235.
    18. Chauhan, Yogesh & Jaiswall, Manju, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and incentive to smooth earnings," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 93-106.
    19. Wei-Fong Pan, 2019. "Geopolitical Risk and R&D investment," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-11, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    20. Attig, Najah & Driss, Hamdi & El Ghoul, Sadok, 2021. "Credit ratings quality in uncertain times," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; Policy uncertainty; Real activities manipulation; Earnings management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:61:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-023-01189-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.