IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v50y2018i1d10.1007_s11156-017-0628-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The sentiment premium and macroeconomic announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Ding Du

    (Northern Arizona University)

  • Ou Hu

    (Youngstown State University)

Abstract

Limits to arbitrage imply that market-wide investor sentiment should be a priced factor in the US equity market. While previous studies (Baker and Wurgler in J Financ 61:1645–1680, 2006) focus on the factor loading on market-wide investor sentiment, we study its factor premium in the present paper. This is important, because both factor loadings and premiums are required to estimate expected returns on stocks, which are essential for capital budgeting, portfolio evaluation, investment, and risk analysis decisions. If overpricing is more prevalent than underpricing (Stambaugh et al. in J Financ Econ 104:288–302, 2012), the premium on market-wide investor sentiment should be negative. Furthermore, the sentiment premium should be particularly significant on days without macroeconomic announcements, because there is a lack of information about the state of the economy at such times. We test these hypotheses in this paper, and find supporting evidence. Our findings have important theoretical as well as practical implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding Du & Ou Hu, 2018. "The sentiment premium and macroeconomic announcements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 207-237, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:50:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0628-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-017-0628-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-017-0628-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-017-0628-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2014. "The long of it: Odds that investor sentiment spuriously predicts anomaly returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 613-619.
    2. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October.
    3. Owen A. Lamont & Richard H. Thaler, 2003. "Can the Market Add and Subtract? Mispricing in Tech Stock Carve-outs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 227-268, April.
    4. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    5. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    6. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    7. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2005. "Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1825-1863, August.
    8. Shanken, Jay & Zhou, Guofu, 2007. "Estimating and testing beta pricing models: Alternative methods and their performance in simulations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 40-86, April.
    9. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    11. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    13. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2015. "The world market risk premium and U.S. macroeconomic announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 75-97.
    14. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    15. Du, Ding, 2013. "Another look at the cross-section and time-series of stock returns: 1951 to 2011," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 130-146.
    16. Robert F. Stambaugh & Jianfeng Yu & Yu Yuan, 2015. "Arbitrage Asymmetry and the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1903-1948, October.
    17. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    18. Wen-Ming Szu & Yi-Chen Wang & Wan-Ru Yang, 2015. "How Does Investor Sentiment Affect Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions of Call and Put Options?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(02), pages 1-35.
    19. Ron Bird & Daniel Choi & Danny Yeung, 2014. "Market uncertainty, market sentiment, and the post-earnings announcement drift," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 45-73, July.
    20. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    21. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    22. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    23. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    24. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    25. Serhiy Kozak & Stefan Nagel & Shrihari Santosh, 2018. "Interpreting Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1183-1223, June.
    26. Savor, Pavel & Wilson, Mungo, 2013. "How Much Do Investors Care About Macroeconomic Risk? Evidence from Scheduled Economic Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 343-375, April.
    27. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    28. Chung Baek, 2016. "Stock prices, dividends, earnings, and investor sentiment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1043-1061, November.
    29. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    30. Nittai K. Bergman & Sugata Roychowdhury, 2008. "Investor Sentiment and Corporate Disclosure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1057-1083, December.
    31. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    32. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    33. Cathy Chen & I-Doun Kuo, 2014. "Investor sentiment and interest rate volatility smile: evidence from Eurodollar options markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 367-391, August.
    34. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    35. Savor, Pavel & Wilson, Mungo, 2014. "Asset pricing: A tale of two days," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 171-201.
    36. Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2011. "Investor sentiment and the mean-variance relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 367-381, May.
    37. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    38. Paul Hribar & John McInnis, 2012. "Investor Sentiment and Analysts' Earnings Forecast Errors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 293-307, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yen-Ju Hsu & Yang-Cheng Lu & J. Jimmy Yang, 2021. "News sentiment and stock market volatility," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1122, October.
    2. Ding Du & Ou Hu, 2020. "Why does stock-market investor sentiment influence corporate investment?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1221-1246, May.
    3. Difang Huang & Yubin Li & Xinjie Wang & Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong, 2022. "Does the Federal Open Market Committee cycle affect credit risk?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 143-167, March.
    4. Wenjie Ding & Khelifa Mazouz & Qingwei Wang, 2019. "Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns: new theory and evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 493-525, August.
    5. Yao Zheng & Eric Osmer & Liancun Zheng, 2020. "Can mutual funds time investor sentiment?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1449-1486, May.
    6. Alex YiHou Huang & Ming-Che Hu & Quang Thai Truong, 2021. "Asymmetrical impacts from overnight returns on stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 849-889, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. Shen, Junyan & Yu, Jianfeng & Zhao, Shen, 2017. "Investor sentiment and economic forces," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-21.
    3. Robert F. Stambaugh & Yu Yuan, 2017. "Mispricing Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 1270-1315.
    4. Labidi, Chiraz & Yaakoubi, Soumaya, 2016. "Investor sentiment and aggregate volatility pricing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 53-63.
    5. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2014. "Investor Sentiment, Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 531-577, September.
    6. Barroso, Pedro & Detzel, Andrew, 2021. "Do limits to arbitrage explain the benefits of volatility-managed portfolios?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 744-767.
    7. Virk, Nader Shahzad & Butt, Hilal Anwar, 2022. "Asset pricing anomalies: Liquidity risk hedgers or liquidity risk spreaders?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Ruan, Qingsong & Yang, Haiquan & Lv, Dayong & Zhang, Shuhua, 2018. "Cross-correlations between individual investor sentiment and Chinese stock market return: New perspective based on MF-DCCA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 243-256.
    9. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    10. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, November.
    11. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lesnevski, Pavel & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2023. "Surprise in short interest," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Cedric Mbanga & Ali F. Darrat & Jung Chul Park, 2019. "Investor sentiment and aggregate stock returns: the role of investor attention," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 397-428, August.
    13. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    14. Rao, Lanlan & Zhou, Liyun, 2019. "The role of stock price synchronicity on the return-sentiment relation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 119-131.
    15. Vitor Azevedo & Christoph Kaserer & Lucila M. S. Campos, 2021. "Investor sentiment and the time-varying sustainability premium," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(7), pages 600-621, December.
    16. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    17. Ding Du & Xiaobing Zhao, 2017. "Financial investor sentiment and the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 331-361, February.
    18. Ang, Tze Chuan ‘Chewie’ & Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Wei, K.C. John, 2020. "Mispricing firm-level productivity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 139-163.
    19. Ding Du & Ou Hu, 2020. "Why does stock-market investor sentiment influence corporate investment?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1221-1246, May.
    20. Jang, Jeewon & Kang, Jangkoo, 2019. "Probability of price crashes, rational speculative bubbles, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 222-247.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; Macroeconomic announcements; Cross-section of stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:50:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0628-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.