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Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts

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Author Info

  • Stefan Rayer

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  • Stanley Smith
  • Jeff Tayman
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    Abstract

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11113-009-9128-7
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Population Research and Policy Review.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 6 (December)
    Pages: 773-793

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:28:y:2009:i:6:p:773-793

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102983

    Related research

    Keywords: Demography; Small areas; Population projections; Forecast uncertainty; Accuracy;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Smith, Stanley K. & Sincich, Terry, 1992. "Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 495-508, November.
    2. Makridakis, Spyros, 1986. "The art and science of forecasting An assessment and future directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 15-39.
    3. Steve Murdock & F. Leistritz & Rita Hamm & Sean-Shong Hwang & Banoo Parpia, 1984. "An assessment of the accuracy of a regional economic-demographic projection model," Demography, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 383-404, August.
    4. Edgar Morgenroth, 2002. "Evaluating Methods for Short to Medium Term County Population Forecasting," Papers WP143, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454, May.
    6. Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Stochastic demographic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 315-327, November.
    7. Stefan Rayer, 2007. "Population forecast accuracy: does the choice of summary measure of error matter?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 163-184, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Jeff Tayman, 2011. "Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts: State of the Practice and Implementation Strategy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 781-800, October.
    2. Lee, Yun Shin & Scholtes, Stefan, 2014. "Empirical prediction intervals revisited," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 217-234.

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