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Sociopolitical instability, volatility, and the bid-ask spread: Evidence from the free market for dollars in Poland

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Ali Kutan
Su Zhou

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Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence that the weekly bid-ask spread in the Polish free foreign exchange market is heavily affected by the intensity of sociopolitical unrest in this country. A GARCH model is estimated to study the volatility of the free market for dollars in Poland from the third week of October 1988 to the fourth week of January 1990. This period is interesting and important because it includes social and political events under two different government regimes. Empirical evidence suggests that significant sociopolitical turmoil appears to increase the volatility of the market and consequently create substantial changes in the spread. The results of this paper may represent valuable information for other reforming countries. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1995

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF01000082
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 6 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 225-236
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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:6:y:1995:i:3:p:225-236

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Related research
Keywords: developing countries; political and social unrest; GARCH; foreign exchange market volatility;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Melvin, Michael & Shiau, Chin-Duu, 1990. "Property Rights, Development, and Velocity in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(4), pages 821-32, July.
  2. Bollerslev, Tim & Melvin, Michael, 1994. "Bid--ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market : An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 355-372, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Melvin, Michael & Tan, Kok-Hui, 1996. "Foreign Exchange Market Bid-Ask Spreads and the Market Price of Social Unrest," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 329-41, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. S. Brock Blomberg, 1994. "Growth, political instability and the defense burden," Research Paper 9420, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  5. Copeland, Thomas E & Galai, Dan, 1983. " Information Effects on the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1457-69, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Boothe, Paul M, 1988. "Exchange Rate Risk and the Bid-Ask Spread: A Seven Country Comparison," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 485-92, July.
  7. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Alberto Alesina & Sule Ozler & Nouriel Roubini & Phillip Swagel, 1992. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Glassman, Debra, 1987. "Exchange rate risk and transactions costs: Evidence from bid-ask spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 479-490, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Figliuoli, L., 1991. "Every minute counts in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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