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Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows

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  • Serhan Cevik

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper develops an augmented gravity model framework to estimate the impact of infectious diseases on bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries over the period 1995–2017. The results confirm that international tourism is adversely affected by infectious disease risk, and the magnitude of this negative effect is statistically and economically significant. In the case of SARS, for example, a 10% increase in the number of confirmed cases leads, on average, to a reduction of 4.7% in international tourist arrivals. Furthermore, while infectious diseases appear to have a smaller and statistically insignificant negative effect on tourism flows to advanced economies, the magnitude and statistical significance of the impact of infectious diseases are much greater in developing countries, where such diseases tend to be more prevalent and health infrastructure lags behind.

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  • Serhan Cevik, 2022. "Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 141-156, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:33:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11079-021-09619-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-021-09619-5
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    Cited by:

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    3. Shastri, Shruti, 2022. "The impact of infectious diseases on remittances inflows to India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 83-95.
    4. Zhenrao Cai & Dan Gao & Xin Xiao & Linguo Zhou & Chaoyang Fang, 2023. "The Flow of Green Exercise, Its Characteristics, Mechanism, and Pattern in Urban Green Space Networks: A Case Study of Nangchang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2022. "Covid-19 and Capital Flows: The Responses of Investors to the Responses of Governments," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 751-774, September.
    6. Valerio Della Corte & Claudio Doria & Giacomo Oddo, 2023. "The impact of COVID‐19 on international tourism flows to Italy: Evidence from mobile phone data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1378-1407, May.
    7. Malaj, Emi & Malaj, Visar, 2023. "Determinants of international tourism: Empirical evidence from three Mediterranean countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 66-72.

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