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Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth

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Author Info

  • David Levinson

    ()

  • Feng Xie

    ()

  • Norah Oca

Abstract

This research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules across a variety of performance measures. The main scenarios compare 'stated decision rules';, processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with 'revealed decision rules', weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. Results for different scenarios are presented including adding additional constraints for the transportation network expansion and calibration process details. We find that alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations. However, changes in total budget can make a significant difference to system-wide performance.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11067-009-9113-z
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Networks and Spatial Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 239-262

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Handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:12:y:2012:i:2:p:239-262

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=106607

Related research

Keywords: Network growth; Decision-making; Forecasting; Evaluation; The Twin Cities;

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References

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  1. Bhanu Yerra & David Levinson, 2005. "The Emergence of Hierarchy in Transportation Networks," Working Papers 200507, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  2. David Levinson & Bhanu Yerra, 2006. "Self Organization of Surface Transportation Networks," Working Papers 200603, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
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Cited by:
  1. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2007. "Jurisdictional Control and Network Growth," Working Papers 200906, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  2. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2008. "Evaluating the Effects of I-35W Bridge Collapse on Road-Users in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Region," Working Papers 000043, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.

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