Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth
AbstractThis research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules across a variety of performance measures. The main scenarios compare 'stated decision rules';, processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with 'revealed decision rules', weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. Results for different scenarios are presented including adding additional constraints for the transportation network expansion and calibration process details. We find that alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations. However, changes in total budget can make a significant difference to system-wide performance.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Networks and Spatial Economics.
Volume (Year): 12 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=106607
Network growth; Decision-making; Forecasting; Evaluation; The Twin Cities;
Other versions of this item:
- R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion
- R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
- R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bhanu Yerra & David Levinson, 2005.
"The Emergence of Hierarchy in Transportation Networks,"
200507, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Bhanu Yerra & David Levinson, 2005. "The emergence of hierarchy in transportation networks," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 541-553, 09.
- David Levinson & Bhanu Yerra, 2006. "Self Organization of Surface Transportation Networks," Working Papers 200603, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2007.
"Jurisdictional Control and Network Growth,"
200906, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2008. "Evaluating the Effects of I-35W Bridge Collapse on Road-Users in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Region," Working Papers 000043, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
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