IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/netspa/v12y2012i2p239-262.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth

Author

Abstract

This research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules across a variety of performance measures. The main scenarios compare 'stated decision rules', processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with 'revealed decision rules', weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. Results for different scenarios are presented including adding additional constraints for the transportation network expansion and calibration process details. We find that alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations. However, changes in total budget can make a significant difference to system-wide performance.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • David Levinson & Feng Xie & Norah Oca, 2012. "Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 239-262, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:12:y:2012:i:2:p:239-262
    DOI: 10.1007/s11067-009-9113-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11067-009-9113-z
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11067-009-9113-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Levinson & Bhanu Yerra, 2006. "Self-Organization of Surface Transportation Networks," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(2), pages 179-188, May.
    2. Bhanu Yerra & David Levinson, 2005. "The emergence of hierarchy in transportation networks," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 39(3), pages 541-553, September.
    3. Chaisak Suwansirikul & Terry L. Friesz & Roger L. Tobin, 1987. "Equilibrium Decomposed Optimization: A Heuristic for the Continuous Equilibrium Network Design Problem," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 254-263, November.
    4. Besley, Timothy & Coate, Stephen, 2003. "Centralized versus decentralized provision of local public goods: a political economy approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2611-2637, December.
    5. Norah Montes de Oca & David Levinson, 2006. "Network Expansion Decision-making in the Twin Cities," Working Papers 200608, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2011. "Evaluating the effects of the I-35W bridge collapse on road-users in the twin cities metropolitan region," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 691-703, April.
    2. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2009. "Jurisdictional Control and Network Growth," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 459-483, September.
    3. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pozo-Barajas, Rafael, 2016. "An econometric evaluation of the management of large-scale transport infrastructure in Spain during the great recession: Lessons for infrastructure bubbles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 302-313.
    4. David Levinson & David Giacomin & Antony Badsey-Ellis, 2014. "Accessibility and the choice of network investments in the London Underground," Working Papers 000124, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    5. Marcin Stępniak & Piotr Rosik, 2018. "The Role of Transport and Population Components in Change in Accessibility: the Influence of the Distance Decay Parameter," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 291-312, June.
    6. Lei Kang & Chao Yang & Jeffrey C Peters & Peng Zeng, 2016. "Empirical analysis of road networks evolution patterns in a government-oriented development area," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 43(4), pages 698-715, July.
    7. C. Jacobs-Crisioni & C. C. Koopmans, 2016. "Transport link scanner: simulating geographic transport network expansion through individual investments," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 265-301, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2009. "Jurisdictional Control and Network Growth," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 459-483, September.
    2. Rui Ding, 2019. "The Complex Network Theory-Based Urban Land-Use and Transport Interaction Studies," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-14, June.
    3. Michael Iacono & David Levinson & Ahmed El-Geneidy, 2007. "Models of Transportation and Land Use Change: A Guide to the Territory," Working Papers 200805, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    4. Levinson, David & Xie, Feng, 2011. "Does First Last? The Existence and Extent of First Mover Advantages on Spatial Networks," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 4(2), pages 47-69.
    5. Ding, Rui & Ujang, Norsidah & Hamid, Hussain bin & Manan, Mohd Shahrudin Abd & Li, Rong & Wu, Jianjun, 2017. "Heuristic urban transportation network design method, a multilayer coevolution approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 71-83.
    6. Mengying Cui & David Levinson, 2015. "Accessibility and the Ring of Unreliability," Working Papers 000133, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    7. Arthur Huang & David Levinson, 2009. "Modeling phase changes of road networks," Working Papers 000061, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    8. Rui Ding & Norsidah Ujang & Hussain Bin Hamid & Mohd Shahrudin Abd Manan & Rong Li & Safwan Subhi Mousa Albadareen & Ashkan Nochian & Jianjun Wu, 2019. "Application of Complex Networks Theory in Urban Traffic Network Researches," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1281-1317, December.
    9. Daniel Diermeier & Hulya Eraslan & Antonio Merlo, 2003. "The Effects of Constitutions on Coalition Governments in Parliamentary Democracies," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-037, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    10. Chau, Nancy H. & Qin, Yu & Zhang, Weiwen, 2015. "Networked Leaders in the Shadow of the Market – A Chinese Experiment in Allocating Land Conversion Rights," Working Papers 250022, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    11. Acocella Nicola & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni, 2013. "Population location, commuting and local public goods: A political economy approach," wp.comunite 0105, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    12. Gijs Roelofs & Daniel Vuuren, 2017. "The Decentralization of Social Assistance and the Rise of Disability Insurance Enrolment," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-21, March.
    13. Francis Bloch & Unal Zenginobuz, 2012. "Oates' Decentralization Theorem with Household Mobility," Working Papers hal-00657823, HAL.
    14. Francisco Silva, 2016. "Should the Government Provide Public Goods if it Cannot Commit?," Documentos de Trabajo 477, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    15. Jan K. Brueckner & Steven G. Craig & Kangoh Lee, 2019. "Samuelson Meets Federalism: Local Production of a National Public Good," CESifo Working Paper Series 7709, CESifo.
    16. Kempf, Hubert & Rossignol, Stéphane, 2013. "National politics and international agreements," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 93-105.
    17. Gianmarco Daniele & Amedeo Piolatto & Willem Sas, 2018. "Who Sent You? Strategic Voting, Transfers and Bailouts in a Federation," Working Papers. Serie AD 2018-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    18. Désirée Teobaldelli, 2011. "Federalism and the shadow economy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 269-289, March.
    19. Robert P. Inman, 2008. "Federalism's Values and the Value of Federalism," NBER Working Papers 13735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Network growth; Decision-making; Forecasting; Evaluation; The Twin Cities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:12:y:2012:i:2:p:239-262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.