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Missing Analyst Forecasts and Corporate Fraud: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Liuyang Ren

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Xi Zhong

    (Guangdong University of Technology)

  • Liangyong Wan

    (South China University of Technology)

Abstract

The relationship between analysts' forecasts and corporate fraud is a vital theoretical and practical question that needs to be clarified. Based on a strict distinction between negative performance gaps relative to analyst forecasts (negative forecast gaps hereinafter) and analyst coverage, this study investigates the influence of analyst forecasts on corporate fraud from a panoramic perspective. Using panel data on listed companies in China from 2008 to 2019, we find that short-term performance pressure caused by negative forecast gaps is significantly positively correlated with firms’ possibility for fraudulent behavior. However, this positive correlation is weaker in state-owned enterprises than in their non-state-owned counterparts. Further, as a key external governance mechanism, analyst coverage enhances the negative moderator effect of state ownership on the positive relationship between negative forecast gaps and the likelihood of corporate fraud.

Suggested Citation

  • Liuyang Ren & Xi Zhong & Liangyong Wan, 2022. "Missing Analyst Forecasts and Corporate Fraud: Evidence from China," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 171-194, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jbuset:v:181:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10551-021-04837-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10551-021-04837-w
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