Valuation of R&D Sequential Exchange Options Using Monte Carlo Approach
AbstractThis article describes a methodology for evaluating R&D investment projects using Monte Carlomethods. R&D projects generally involves multiple phases with or without overlapping. R&D investments are made often in a phased manner, with the commencement of subsequent phase being dependent on the successful completion of the preceding phase, it is known as sequential investment. Moreover, each stage creates an opportunity (option) for subsequent investment. Therefore, R&D projects can be considered as âCompound Options' in which investments present uncertainty both in the gross project value and in costs. It is possible to use exchange options to value the R&D investment opportunities. In this paper, we propose to value the European and American Real Compound Exchange options through Monte Carlo simulation. We also provide a set of numerical experiments to provide evidence for the accuracy of the proposed methodology.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Society for Computational Economics in its journal Computational Economics.
Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pseudo compound American exchange option; R&D; Monte Carlo methods; G13; O32; C15;
Other versions of this item:
- Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2008. "Valuation of R&D Sequential Exchange Options using Monte Carlo approach," Quaderni DSEMS 04-2008, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- O32 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carr, Peter P, 1988. " The Valuation of Sequential Exchange Opportunities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1235-56, December.
- Broadie, Mark & Glasserman, Paul, 1997. "Pricing American-style securities using simulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1323-1352, June.
- Armada, Manuel Rocha & Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Pereira, Paulo Jorge, 2007. "A modified finite-lived American exchange option methodology applied to real options valuation," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-438, March.
- Geske, Robert & Johnson, Herb E, 1984. " The American Put Option Valued Analytically," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1511-24, December.
- Barraquand, Jérôme & Martineau, Didier, 1995. "Numerical Valuation of High Dimensional Multivariate American Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(03), pages 383-405, September.
- Giovanni Villani, 2009. "A Strategic R&D Investment with Flexible Development Time in Real Option Game Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2728, CESifo Group Munich.
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