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Quantifying the supply-side benefits from forward contracting in wholesale electricity markets

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  • Frank A. Wolak

    (Department of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA)

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    Abstract

    The assumption of expected profit-maximizing bidding behavior in a multi-unit, multi-period auction with step-function supply curves is used to estimate cost functions for electricity generation units and derive tests of expected profit-maximizing behavior. Applying these techniques to data from the National Electricity Market in Australia reveals statistically significant evidence of output-dependent marginal costs within and across half-hours of the day, but no evidence against the hypothesis of expected profit-maximizing behavior. These cost function estimates quantify the economic significance of output-varying costs and how forward financial contract obligations impact the amount of these costs the generation unit owner incurs. This supplier's existing obligations imply average daily production costs that are 8% lower than the profit-maximizing pattern of output with no forward contract obligations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 22 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 7 ()
    Pages: 1179-1209

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    Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:22:y:2007:i:7:p:1179-1209

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    1. Horowitz, Joel L, 1992. "A Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator for the Binary Response Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 505-31, May.
    2. Hall, Alastair R., 2004. "Generalized Method of Moments," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198775201, October.
    3. Frank Wolak, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Hedge Contracts on Bidding Behavior in a Competitive Electricity Market," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 1-39.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
    5. Bushnell, James & Wolfram, Catherine, 2008. "Electricity Markets," Staff General Research Papers 31547, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Erin T. Mansur, 2003. "Vertical Integration in Restructured Electricity Markets: Measuring Market Efficiency and Firm Conduct," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm430, Yale School of Management.
    7. Wolak, Frank A., 1989. "Local and Global Testing of Linear and Nonlinear Inequality Constraints in Nonlinear Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 1-35, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Nancy L. Rose, 2013. "Learning from the Past: Insights for the Regulation of Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Regulation and Its Reform: What Have We Learned?, pages 1-23 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. de Frutos, María-Ángeles & Fabra, Natalia, 2012. "How to allocate forward contracts: The case of electricity markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 451-469.
    3. Holmberg, Pär & Newbery, David & Ralph, Daniel, 2013. "Supply function equilibria: Step functions and continuous representations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(4), pages 1509-1551.
    4. Pär Holmberg & Andy Philpott, 2014. "Supply function equilibria in transportation networks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1421, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. de Frutos, Maria-Angeles & Fabra, Natalia, 2008. "On the Impact of Forward Contract Obligations in Multi-Unit Auctions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Yuanjing Li, 2014. "Vertical Structure and Forward Contract in Electricity Market," Working Papers 2014-117, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    7. Le-Yu Chen & Jerzy Szroeter, 2009. "Hypothesis testing of multiple inequalities: the method of constraint chaining," CeMMAP working papers CWP13/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Lamadrid, Alberto J. & Mount, Tim, 2012. "Ancillary services in systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources, the case of ramping," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1959-1971.
    9. Shaun D. MCRAE & Frank A. WOLAK, 2009. "How Do Firms Exercise Unilateral Market Power? Evidence from a Bid-Based Wholesale Electricity Market," RSCAS Working Papers 2009/36, European University Institute.

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