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Empirical Asset Pricing and Statistical Power in the Presence of Weak Risk Factors

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A. Craig Burnside

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Abstract

The risk factors in many consumption-based asset pricing models display statistically weak correlation with the returns being priced. Some GMM-based procedures used to test these models have very low power to reject proposed stochastic discount factors (SDFs) when they are misspecified and the covariance matrix of the asset returns with the risk factors has less than full column rank. Consequently, these estimators provide potentially misleading positive assessments of the SDFs. Working with SDFs specified in terms of demeaned risk factors improves the performance of GMM but the power to reject misspecified SDFs may remain low. Two summary tests for failure of the rank condition have reasonable power, and lead to no Type I errors in Monte Carlo experiments.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13357.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13357

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. A. Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," NBER Working Papers 14054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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