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Expected Return of Housing and Mortgage Termination

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Abstract

The prepayment risk of adjustable rate mortgages, unlike that of fixed rate mortgages, greatly depends on the decision of mortgagors to move. Given that housing also serves as an investment asset for the owner, it is hypothesised that the expected capital returns of housing are likely to affect his decision to move and hence, prepay. This paper aims to test the capital gains hypothesis using Singapore’s housing market as a case study. In addition, this paper also explores how the expected returns from alternative types of housing affect the decision of households to move/prepay. The expected returns of housing are computed in accordance with the definitions of the Rational Expectation Hypothesis, Adaptive Expectation Hypothesis, and Exogenous Expectation Hypothesis, which are well established in macroeconomic literature and the explanation of cycles. The results showed that the expected returns of public housing formed under the assumptions of rational and adaptive expectation hypothesis are significant. The rational expected return for private housing, however, does not have a significant relationship with the decision of mortgagors to move/prepay, although the adapted expected return for private housing is not significantly related to the households’ length of stay.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Asian Real Estate Society in its journal International Real Estate Review.

Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 75-101

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Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:06:n:01:2003:p:75-101

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Postal: Asia Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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Web page: http://www.asres.org/

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Postal: Asian Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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Web: http://www.asres.org/

Related research

Keywords: Expected Returns; Prepayment;

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References

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  1. Quigley, John M, 1987. "Interest Rate Variations, Mortgage Prepayments and Household Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 636-43, November.
  2. Shoven, John & Green, Jerry, 1986. "The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayments," Scholarly Articles 3204664, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. R B Davies & A R Pickles, 1991. "An analysis of housing careers in Cardiff," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 23(5), pages 629-650, May.
  4. James VanderHoff, 1996. "Adjustable and Fixed Rate Mortgage Termination, Option Values and Local Market Conditions: An Empirical Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(3), pages 379-406.
  5. Kau, James B, et al, 1995. "The Valuation at Origination of Fixed-Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-36, July.
  6. Quigley, John M., 2002. "Transactions Costs and Housing Markets," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6pz8p6zt, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  7. Quigley, John M., 1993. "Explicit Tests of Contingent Claims Models of Mortgage Defaults," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3df5357v, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  8. A R Pickles & R B Davies, 1991. "The empirical analysis of housing careers: a review and a general statistical modelling framework," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 23(4), pages 465-484, April.
  9. Robert J. Shiller & Karl E. Case, 1988. "The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 890, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Phillips, Richard A & Rosenblatt, Eric & VanderHoff, James H, 1996. "The Probability of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Termination," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 95-104, September.
  11. Thomas A. Knapp & Nancy E. White & David E. Clark, 2001. "A Nested Logit Approach to Household Mobility," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 1-22.
  12. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  13. Chow, Ying-Foon & Huang, Charles & Liu, Ming, 2000. "Valuation of adjustable rate mortgages with automatic stretching maturity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(11), pages 1809-1829, November.
  14. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  15. Jia He & Ming Liu, 1998. "Mortgage Prepayment Behavior in a Market with ARMs only," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 1(1), pages 64-80.
  16. Ioannides, Yannis M., 1987. "Residential mobility and housing tenure choice," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 265-287.
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