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Credibilidad, Problema Peso y Comportamiento de las Tasas de Interés: Chile 1979-1982

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Author Info
Leonardo Hernández
Abstract

This paper analyzed the behavior of domestic interest rates after opening the Capital Account in Chile. Contrary to what has been argued by others, the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Condition seems to hold when we allow for the possibility of a change in regime. A non-fully credible fixed-exchange rate system, and the induced “peso problem”, seem to be relevant in understanding the level reached by domestic interest rates during 1980-81. An expected depreciation of the currency becomes rational due to the necessary adjustment of the real exchange rate and the lack of credibility of the stabilization program. Credibility appears to be increasing in the growth rate of Industrial Production and in the unit-price of copper, but decreasing in the growth rate of domestic credit.

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Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía.

Volume (Year): 28 (1991)
Issue (Month): 85 ()
Pages: 385-410
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:28:y:1991:i:85:p:385-410

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "The Capital Inflows Problem Revisited: A Stylized Model of Southern Cone Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Corbo, Vittorio & de Melo, Jaime & Tybout, James, 1986. "What Went Wrong with the Recent Reforms in the Southern Cone," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(3), pages 607-40, April.
  3. Cohen, Daniel & Michel, Philippe, 1988. "How Should Control Theory Be Used to Calculate a Time-Consistent Government Policy?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2), pages 263-74, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Corbo, Vittorio & De Melo, Jaime, 1985. "Overview and summary," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 863-866, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andersen, Torben M. & Risager, Ole, 1988. "Stabilization policies, credibility, and interest rate determination in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 669-679, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pagan, Adrian, 1986. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 517-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Baxter, Marianne, 1985. "The role of expectations in stabilization policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 343-362, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Policy Credibility Following a Change in Regime," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2), pages 211-21, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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