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Competing to Be Certain (But Wrong): Market Dynamics and Excessive Confidence in Judgment

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  • Joseph R. Radzevick

    (Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213)

  • Don A. Moore

    (Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California 94720)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate how market competition contributes to the expression of overconfidence among those competing for influence. We find evidence that market competition exacerbates the tendency to express excessive confidence. This evidence comes from experiments in which advisors attempt to sell their advice. In the first, advisors must compete with other advice sellers. In the second, advisors and their customers are paired. Advisors are overconfident in both studies and it helps advisors sell their advice. However, competition between advisors in the market further exacerbates overconfidence. In a third study, we demonstrate that the market competition drives overconfidence even when advisors vary in quality. We also investigate the strategic expressions and interpretations of confidence by both sides in the exchange. This paper was accepted by Peter Wakker, decision analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph R. Radzevick & Don A. Moore, 2011. "Competing to Be Certain (But Wrong): Market Dynamics and Excessive Confidence in Judgment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(1), pages 93-106, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:1:p:93-106
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1100.1255
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Song, Zhuzhu & Tang, Wansheng & Zhao, Ruiqing & Zhang, Guoqing, 2021. "Inventory strategy of the risk averse supplier and overconfident manufacturer with uncertain demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    6. Aghazadeh, Sanaz & Joe, Jennifer R., 2022. "Auditors' response to management confidence and misstatement risk," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. W. Robert Knechel & Justin Leiby, 2016. "If You Want My Advice: Status Motives and Audit Consultations About Accounting Estimates," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 1331-1364, December.
    8. Asmus Leth Olsen, 2018. "Precise performance: Do citizens rely on numerical precision as a cue of confidence?," Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, Center for Experimental and Behavioral Public Administration, vol. 1(1).
    9. Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Victor Richmond R. Jose & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., 2017. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 1110-1130, April.
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    12. Jain, Tarun & Hazra, Jishnu & Cheng, T.C.E., 2018. "Sourcing under overconfident buyer and suppliers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 93-109.

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