Forecasting New Product Sales from Likelihood of Purchase Ratings
AbstractThis paper compares consumer likelihood of purchase ratings for a proposed new product to their actual purchase behavior after the product was introduced. The ratings were obtained from a mail survey a few weeks before the product was introduced. The analysis leads to a model for forecasting new product sales. The model is supported by both empirical evidence and a reasonable theoretical foundation. In addition to calibrating the relationship between questionnaire ratings and actual purchases, the empirical evidence demonstrates the significant effect of alternative promotion/distribution vehicles on new product sales. The model uses questionnaire data to extend the results of a limited market trial to alternative target markets, product specifications, and prices.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by INFORMS in its journal Marketing Science.
Volume (Year): 5 (1986)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
purchase intentions; demand forecasting; questionnaires; calibration;
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