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Forecasting New Product Sales from Likelihood of Purchase Ratings

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Author Info

  • William J. Infosino

    (AT&T Bell Laboratories)

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    Abstract

    This paper compares consumer likelihood of purchase ratings for a proposed new product to their actual purchase behavior after the product was introduced. The ratings were obtained from a mail survey a few weeks before the product was introduced. The analysis leads to a model for forecasting new product sales. The model is supported by both empirical evidence and a reasonable theoretical foundation. In addition to calibrating the relationship between questionnaire ratings and actual purchases, the empirical evidence demonstrates the significant effect of alternative promotion/distribution vehicles on new product sales. The model uses questionnaire data to extend the results of a limited market trial to alternative target markets, product specifications, and prices.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.5.4.372
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Marketing Science.

    Volume (Year): 5 (1986)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 372-384

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:5:y:1986:i:4:p:372-384

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    Related research

    Keywords: purchase intentions; demand forecasting; questionnaires; calibration;

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    Cited by:
    1. McFadden, Daniel L. & Bemmaor, Albert C. & Caro, Francis G. & Dominitz, Jeff & Jun, Byung-hill & Lewbel, Arthur & Matzkin, Rosa L. & Molinari, Francesca & Schwarz, Norbert & Willis, Robert J. & Winter, 2005. "Statistical analysis of choice experiments and surveys," Munich Reprints in Economics 19251, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Armstrong, J. Scott & Morwitz, Vicki G. & Kumar, V., 2000. "Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 383-397.
    3. B. Douglas Bernheim & Daniel Bjorkegren & Jeffrey Naecker & Antonio Rangel, 2013. "Do Hypothetical Choices and Non-Choice Ratings Reveal Preferences?," NBER Working Papers 19269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Carson, Richard T & Groves, Theodore, 2010. "Incentive and Information Properties of Preference Questions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt88d8644g, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    5. Etienne Bressoud, 2007. "Identification des variables produits et attitudinales explicatives des ventes : proposition d'un cadre conceptuel appliqué aux jeux vidéo," Post-Print halshs-00305749, HAL.
    6. Carson, Richard T. & Hanemann, W. Michael, 2006. "Contingent Valuation," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 17, pages 821-936 Elsevier.

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