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Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys

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Author Info

  • Daniel McFadden

    ()

  • Albert Bemmaor

    ()

  • Francis Caro

    ()

  • Jeff Dominitz

    ()

  • Byung-Hill Jun

    ()

  • Arthur Lewbel

    ()

  • Rosa Matzkin

    ()

  • Francesca Molinari

    ()

  • Norbert Schwarz

    ()

  • Robert Willis

    ()

  • Joachim Winter

    ()

Abstract

Measures of households' past behavior, their expectations with respect to future events and contingencies, and their intentions with respect to future behavior are frequently collected using household surveys. These questions are conceptually difficult. Answering them requires elaborate cognitive and social processes, and often respondents report only their “best” guesses and/or estimates, using more or less sophisticated heuristics. A large body of literature in psychology and survey research shows that as a result, responses to such questions may be severely biased. In this paper, (1) we describe some of the problems that are typically encountered, (2) provide some empirical illustrations of these biases, and (3) develop a framework for conceptualizing survey response behavior and for integrating structural models of response behavior into the statistical analysis of the underlying economic behavior. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11002-005-5884-2
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Marketing Letters.

Volume (Year): 16 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 183-196

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Handle: RePEc:kap:mktlet:v:16:y:2005:i:3:p:183-196

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100312

Related research

Keywords: consumer surveys; survey response error; hypothetical choice; applied econometrics;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. James Banks & Arie Kapteyn & James P. Smith & Arthur van Soest, 2004. "International Comparisons of Work Disability," Working Papers 155, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  2. Michael D. Hurd & Daniel McFadden & Harish Chand & Li Gan & Angela Menill & Michael Roberts, 1998. "Consumption and Savings Balances of the Elderly: Experimental Evidence on Survey Response Bias," NBER Chapters, in: Frontiers in the Economics of Aging, pages 353-392 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Smith, V. Kerry & Taylor, Donald H., Jr. & Sloan, Frank A., 2000. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," Working Papers 00-15, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  4. Klein, Roger & Sherman, Robert, 1997. "Estimating new product demand from biased survey data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 53-76.
  5. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
  6. Li Gan & Michael Hurd & Daniel McFadden, 2003. "Individual Subjective Survival Curves," NBER Working Papers 9480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Manohar U. Kalwani & Alvin J. Silk, 1982. "On the Reliability and Predictive Validity of Purchase Intention Measures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 243-286.
  8. Kathleen McGarry, 2004. "Health and Retirement: Do Changes in Health Affect Retirement Expectations?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(3).
  9. Adams, Peter & Hurd, Michael D. & McFadden, Daniel & Merrill, Angela & Ribeiro, Tiago, 2003. "Healthy, wealthy, and wise? Tests for direct causal paths between health and socioeconomic status," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 3-56, January.
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  11. Axel Börsch-Supan & Moshe Ben-Akiva & Kenneth Train & Daniel McFadden, 2002. "Hybrid Choice Models: Progress and Challenges," MEA discussion paper series 02009, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  12. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
  13. Schwarz, Norbert, 2003. " Self-Reports in Consumer Research: The Challenge of Comparing Cohorts and Cultures," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 588-94, March.
  14. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, . "Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1050-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
  15. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1997. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival," NBER Working Papers 6193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Granbois, Donald H & Summers, John O, 1975. " Primary and Secondary Validity of Consumer Purchase Probabilities," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(4), pages 31-38, March.
  17. Harris, Katherine M. & Keane, Michael P., 1998. "A model of health plan choice:: Inferring preferences and perceptions from a combination of revealed preference and attitudinal data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 131-157, November.
  18. Winter, Joachim, 0000. "Bracketing effects in categorized survey questions and the measurement of economic quantities," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-35, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  19. Crossley, Thomas F. & Kennedy, Steven, 2002. "The reliability of self-assessed health status," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 643-658, July.
  20. Bound, John & Brown, Charles & Mathiowetz, Nancy, 2001. "Measurement error in survey data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 59, pages 3705-3843 Elsevier.
  21. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
  22. William J. Infosino, 1986. "Forecasting New Product Sales from Likelihood of Purchase Ratings," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 372-384.
  23. Manski, Charles F, 1999. "Analysis of Choice Expectations in Incomplete Scenarios," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 49-66, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Borghans Lex & Romans Margo & Sauermann Jan, 2010. "What makes a good conference? Analysing the preferences of labor economists," Research Memorandum 020, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  2. Fredrik Carlsson & Mitesh Kataria & Elina Lampi, 2009. "Dealing with ignored attributes in choice experiments on valuation of Sweden's environmental quality objectives," Jena Economic Research Papers 2009-089, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  3. Borghans Lex & Romans Margo & Sauermann Jan, 2010. "What makes a good conference? Analysing the preferences of labor economists," Research Memorandum 020, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  4. Francesca De Nicola & Xavier Gene, 2012. "How accurate are recall data? Evidence from coastal India," Working Papers id:5010, eSocialSciences.
  5. Belyaev, Yuri & Kriström, Bengt, 2012. "Two-step approach to Self-Selected Interval Data in Elicitation Surveys," CERE Working Papers 2012:10, CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics.
  6. Richard, Pierre J. & Coltman, Tim & Keating, Byron W., 2009. "Designing IS service strategy: an information acceleration approach," MPRA Paper 40488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Petri Böckerman & Pekka Ilmakunnas, 2009. "Unemployment and self-assessed health: evidence from panel data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 161-179.
  8. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
  9. Søren Olsen, 2009. "Choosing Between Internet and Mail Survey Modes for Choice Experiment Surveys Considering Non-Market Goods," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(4), pages 591-610, December.
  10. Thomas F. Crossley & Joachim K. Winter, 2012. "Asking Households about Expenditures: What Have We Learned?," NBER Chapters, in: Improving the Measurement of Consumer Expenditures National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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