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Towards a Framework for Quantifying Systemic Stability

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  • Piergiorgio Alessandri

    (Bank of England)

  • Prasanna Gai

    (Australian National University)

  • Sujit Kapadia

    (Bank of England)

  • Nada Mora

    (Bank of England)

  • Claus Puhr

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Abstract

This paper describes a prototype quantitative framework for gauging systemic risk which explicitly characterizes banks’ balance sheets and allows for macro credit risk, interest income risk, market risk, network interactions, and asset-side feedback effects. In presenting our results, we focus on projections for systemwide banking assets in the United Kingdom, considering both unconditional distributions and stress scenarios.We show how a combination of extreme credit and trading losses can precipitate fundamental defaults and trigger contagious default associated with network effects and fire sales of distressed assets. Despite the joint normality of all risk factors, the model generates a bimodal asset distribution.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 47-81

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:3:a:2

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References

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  1. Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Stephen Millard & Ander Perez, 2006. "Financial innovation, macroeconomic stability and systemic crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  2. James, Christopher, 1991. " The Losses Realized in Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1223-42, September.
  3. Isabel Schnabel & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity and Contagion: The Crisis of 1763," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 929-968, December.
  4. Christian Upper, 2007. "Using counterfactual simulations to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," BIS Working Papers 234, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Dees, S. & di Mauro, F. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0518, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity and leverage," Staff Reports 328, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?," NBER Working Papers 11728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe13, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  9. Arturo Bris & Ivo Welch & Ning Zhu, 2006. "The Costs of Bankruptcy: Chapter 7 Liquidation versus Chapter 11 Reorganization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1253-1303, 06.
  10. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
  11. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.
  12. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
  13. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
  14. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
  15. Dale F. Gray; & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2009. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 541, Central Bank of Chile.
  16. Claudio Borio & Claudio Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Towards an operational framework for financial stability: "fuzzy" measurement and its consequences," BIS Working Papers 284, Bank for International Settlements.
  17. Kindleberger,, 2008. "Financial Crises," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521068710, October.
  18. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1999. "Risk Management with Interdependent Choice," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 52-62, Autumn.
  19. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. " Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-66, September.
  20. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. N. Foti & S. Pauls & Daniel N. Rockmore, 2011. "Stability of the World Trade Web over Time - An Extinction Analysis," Papers 1104.4380, arXiv.org, revised May 2011.
  2. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Drehmann, Mathias, 2010. "An economic capital model integrating credit and interest rate risk in the banking book," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 730-742, April.
  3. Kartik Anand & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Simon Brennan & Matthew Willison, 2011. "A Network Model of Financial System Resilience," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-051, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia, & Elizabeth Martin, & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410 Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123 Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Christian Schmieder & Maher Hasan & Claus Puhr, 2011. "Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 11/83, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
  8. Bargigli, Leonardo & Gallegati, Mauro & Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto, 2014. "Network analysis and calibration of the “leveraged network-based financial accelerator”," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 109-125.
  9. Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin & Alexandrova-Kabadjova, Biliana & Bravo-Benitez, Bernardo & Solórzano-Margain, Juan Pablo, 2014. "An empirical study of the Mexican banking system’s network and its implications for systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 242-265.
  10. Bargigli, Leonardo & Gallegati, Mauro, 2011. "Random digraphs with given expected degree sequences: A model for economic networks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 396-411, May.
  11. Kapadia, Sujit & Drehmann, Mathias & Elliott, John & Sterne, Gabriel, 2012. "Liquidity risk, cash-flow constraints and systemic feedbacks," Bank of England working papers 456, Bank of England.
  12. Webber, Lewis & Willison, Matthew, 2011. "Systemic capital requirements," Bank of England working papers 436, Bank of England.
  13. Foti, Nicholas J. & Pauls, Scott & Rockmore, Daniel N., 2013. "Stability of the World Trade Web over time – An extinction analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1889-1910.
  14. Burrows, Oliver & Learmonth, David & McKeown, jack & Williams, Richard, 2012. "RAMSI: a top-down stress-testing model developed at the Bank of England," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(3), pages 204-212.
  15. Claus Puhr & Reinhardt Seliger & Michael Sigmund, 2012. "Contagiousness and Vulnerability in the Austrian Interbank Market," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 24.

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