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RMB Exchange Rate and China¡¯s Economic Growth: The Empirical Analysis from a Structural VAR Model

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  • Cancan Su
  • Jia Wu

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate and the real GDP of China in the long period from 1952 to 2014 using a structural VAR model. We examine the mutual effect of the two variables in three periods: The results show that there is no obvious relationship between the exchange rate and real GDP before China¡¯s reform and opening-up period. However, a significant positive correlation is found in the sample of 1979-1993, which means that the depreciation of the RMB is associated with the output increases. The direction between the exchange rate and real GDP becomes negative after 1994, indicating that RMB appreciates with the output increases in this period. In addition, based on Granger causality test, we found the exchange rate could Granger causes GDP after 1978, but there is no Granger causality connection between the two variables before 1978.

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  • Cancan Su & Jia Wu, 2017. "RMB Exchange Rate and China¡¯s Economic Growth: The Empirical Analysis from a Structural VAR Model," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(7), pages 189-199, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:7:p:189-199
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
    4. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
    5. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1988. "Real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior: Theory and evidence from developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 311-341, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. DO Thi My Huong, 2019. "Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: An Empirical Assessment for Vietnam," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(6), pages 680-690, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    RMB exchange rate; economic growth; bivariable analysis; structural VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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