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Evaluating The Dynamic And Spatial Economic Impacts Of An Earthquake: A Cge Application To Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Hiroyuki SHIBUSAWA

    (Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Toyohashi University of Technology,Japan)

  • Yuzuru MIYATA

    (Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Toyohashi University of Technology,Japan)

Abstract

We have developed a dynamic spatial computable general equilibrium model to investigate the regional economic impacts of an earthquake. In our spatial model, Japan is subdivided into 47 regions. All the regions are connected by transportation networks. Our model is of a decentralized economy with utility-maximizing consumers and value-maximizing firms in a dynamic context. The model embodies both the spatial commodity flows among regions and the dynamics of regional investments. The model is calibrated for the regional economy using a multi-regional input-output table for Japan. We estimate the impacts of a hypothetical earthquake, which is expected to occur in the near future, on the regional economy in a case study of the Tokai region of Japan. The results show the indirect and distributional economic impacts before and after an earthquake. This study suggests that any disaster analysis should evaluate the economic impacts of a disaster based on both ex-ante and ex-post criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroyuki SHIBUSAWA & Yuzuru MIYATA, 2011. "Evaluating The Dynamic And Spatial Economic Impacts Of An Earthquake: A Cge Application To Japan," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 13-25, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:hrs:journl::v:iii:y:2011:i:2:p:13-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Giesecke, 2002. "Explaining regional economic performance: An historical application of a dynamic multi-regional CGE model," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 81(2), pages 247-278, April.
    2. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 675-692, May.
    3. Kehoe,Timothy J. & Srinivasan,T. N. & Whalley,John (ed.), 2005. "Frontiers in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521825252.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuchen Hu & Harvey Cutler & Yihua Mao, 2023. "Economic Loss Assessment for Losses Due to Earthquake under an Integrated Building, Lifeline, and Transportation Nexus: A Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Approach for Shelby County, TN," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-24, May.
    2. Giesecke, James A. & Madden, John R., 2013. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 379-475, Elsevier.
    3. Camacho, Carmen & Sun, Yu, 2019. "Longterm decision making under the threat of earthquakes?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118927, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Hiroyuki Shibusawa & Yuzuru Miyata, 2017. "Evaluating production effects of economic activity in zones surrounding the nuclear power station in Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 291-306, October.
    5. Suminori Tokunaga & Mitsuru Okiyama, 2017. "Impacts of industry clusters with innovation on the regional economy in Japanese depopulating society after the Great East Japan Earthquake," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 99-131, April.
    6. Jahn, Malte, 2014. "A spatial computable general equilibrium model for the analysis of regional climate change impacts and adaptation policies," HWWI Research Papers 154, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    7. Carmen Camacho & Yu Sun, 2017. "Longterm decision making under the threat of earthquakes," PSE Working Papers halshs-01670507, HAL.
    8. Carmen Camacho & Yu Sun, 2017. "Longterm decision making under the threat of earthquakes," Working Papers halshs-01670507, HAL.
    9. Vasileios PAPADIMITRIOU & Serafeim POLYZOS & Dimitrios TSIOTAS, 2023. "Renewable Energy Project Appraisal Using The Real Options Methodology," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 85-96, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disaster Protection; Indirect Economic Impacts; Tokai Earthquake; Dynamic Spatial CGE Modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

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